>>45278501Lucario will (and should) be his first one because it's the first mega that the player gets in the games. In the Kalos games, the canon megas are Lucario + 1 Kanto starter. Since we've seen Ash's OG team in promotional material, he'll probably get a Mega Charizard. My guess is that Leon does have a keystone for battles outside of Galar, so Ash will get the MegaZard that's opposite to whatever Leon has.
He'll probably rotate between Charizard/Lucario/Greninja throughout the higher ranks since they're not only Ash's aces but they're among the most popular shillmons. How would Ash rotate between other mons in his team? He'll probably rotate between Dragonite and Snorlax.
It's starting to look like the returning mons may be the OG team + Greninja.