>Cut, Strength, Rock Smash
Just like Strength in BW, you should only need to use it once. They should be HMs for shorcuts/hidden places (think glorious Rusturf Tunnel), MAYBE could be used as an obstacle for plot advancement, when you get them the first time.
>Waterfall, Dive, Rock Climb, Fly
Eh, you either don't need them all the time, or don't even *need* them. They could be TMs, or even free Tutor moves. You shouldn't need the HM move to get down a waterfall or to get back to the surface, in example.
>Surf
Why wouldn't you want it, you dipshit
>Defog
Fuck you
All in all, the quintessential HM is Surf; while everything else's there either to access special places or to let you use shortcuts. The first groupd would be fine if you really needed to use them once and the fucking obstacles didn't respawn, while the second would work better not being HMs *and* not needing them to get back.
So, 4 HMs, only one of them being absolutely necessary. I'd be okay with this.