>>14481876I'm someone else, but
1 shiny in 8192 pokemon.
For each pokemon you encounter, there's a 8191/8192 (0.9998779296875) chance you won't get a shiny.
If you encounter 200 pokemon, there's a (8191/8192)^200 or 0.97588009584 chance you wont get a shiny.
There is a 0.02411990416 or 2.4% chance to get a shiny.