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Solving the shiny mystery

No.14663101 View ViewReplyOriginalReport
Ok /vp/, we're going to settle this talk about shiny encounters once and for all, and we're going to help each other out.

I've been seeing alot of "trying to masuda a shiny whatever and I have several boxes to give away, add me" threads, and I think we could put this information to good use.

if you're done breeding shinies, post whether or not you're using masuda, and then post approximately how many failures there were before you finally got a shiny. Try to be as accurate as possible. If you already gave away many of your extras, try to account for approximately how many boxes you gave away.

If you eventually gave up, it would also be helpful to say how many you bred, and whether or not it was masuda. This is so that we can correctly gauge how many eggs people will breed on average, which is important.

On average a non masuda has an encounter rate of 1/8192, and masuda has 1/1638. If shiny encounter rates were like they always were these numbers should be the same.

There is one problem with this data, which is that those who get shinies are those who get them within reasonable limits, the "give up average" is important to see what that reasonable limit is, then we can figure out how often people get shinies within that limit, and VIOLA! That's our shiny rate.