/vp/ - Pokémon » Thread #16607106

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 07:59:47 No.16607106 View View Reply Original Report

Does anybody else think shiny pokemon that are available in hordes are less valuable now?

I mean they've never really had that much value to begin with but like. Everybody. EVERYBODY who buys X/Y has basically Masuda method odds of getting shinies in hordes cause it takes the normal probability and divides it by 5.

I just caught this guy and feel kinda disappointed that my only shinies this gen are this guy (named 'im Greengills) and a shiny blue Gulpin (also available in hordes).

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:00:33 No.16607116 Report

Quoted By:

Well technically since X/Y isn't infected by hacks yet they are way more valuable

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:01:19 No.16607125 Report

Quoted By:

I mean it depends on what you're going to do with them. If they're just for you just enjoy them

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:02:03 No.16607134 Report

Quoted By: >>16607207

Shinies are virtually worthless now because of instacheck. It doesn't matter what method you use, whether it be masuda, chaining, fish chaining, etc. It's all been devalued x100

Anonymous

.

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:07:32 No.16607178 Report

Quoted By: >>16607355

>>16607106
They still all have the 1/4000ish chance, so arguably your odds arent any better than just 1 on 1 encounters, you're just getting through 5x as many encounters as you were before, kinda like playing 5 3ds' at once

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:10:12 No.16607207 Report

Quoted By: >>16607317 >>16607889

>>16607134

This. I really wish they'd add a "color value" or something to breeding so it would be another variable you could control (and therefore also introducing multiple pallets to every pokemon).

There are only, like, two shinies I can name off the top of my head (Galvantula and Sylveon) that I prefer over the original.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:18:22 No.16607295 Report

Quoted By:

Shinies NEVER really had any value to them. Even in the gen that they were introduced, GF throws one in your direction. Fast forward to gen 4 and onward, no shiny is sacred with pokegen and related websites. The only reason to have a shiny is if you prefer its color, and that is all.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:20:53 No.16607317 Report

Quoted By: >>16607349 >>16607389 >>16607496 >>16607585 >>16612025

>>16607207
Instacheckers are just a bunch of fat, lazy americans who are too used to having everything handed to them on a silver platter. Once this shit popped up, they jumped on it like the next best hamburger.

Like there are times where I've wanted to go and do some shiny hunting but then I'm just like what's the point when some fat neckbeard american already has 10 of the same shiny with 0 effort put forth into getting it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:24:04 No.16607349 Report

Quoted By: >>16607369

>>16607317
>Like there are times where I've wanted to go and do some shiny hunting but then I'm just like what's the point when some fat neckbeard american already has 10 of the same shiny with 0 effort put forth into getting it.

You won't shiny hunt because someone somewhere got it faster? Did you also refuse to breed for IVs when people used pokegen to create perfect pokemon?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:24:26 No.16607355 Report

Quoted By: >>16607466

>>16607178
>start battle
>no shiny
>run away
>repeat til you find shiny
What you basically have is a 5 where you would normally have a 1 in the fraction. Instead of 1/8192 it is 5/8192. Which of course reduces to roughly 1/1638. MM the chances are 1/1365, so as you can see the two are fairly similar odds.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:25:16 No.16607369 Report

Quoted By: >>16607378 >>16607390

>>16607349
I never really got into IV shit until this gen so...

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:26:07 No.16607378 Report

Quoted By: >>16607402

>>16607369
And people can use instachecker to see the pokemon's IVs.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:26:40 No.16607384 Report

Quoted By:

You think you feel bad OP? Try masuda'ing a shiny clauncher before everyone discovered the fishing thing.

I love you Blue, you will always be my special

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:27:04 No.16607389 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607317

B-but anon I am also American...

I sort of wish shinies were just a product of having 6 perfect IVs or something, if I can't have the color value mechanic.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:27:14 No.16607390 Report

Quoted By: >>16607488

>>16607369
it's the same thing though. There are people out there that make perfect 31 IV pokemon instantly

What's the point of breeding IVs when someone already has a 10 of them with zero effort?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:28:39 No.16607402 Report

Quoted By: >>16607441

>>16607378
>>16607378
which can be done anyway in Kiloude

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:30:15 No.16607419 Report

Quoted By: >>16607473

Shinies don't seem to be losing value, since you can sell them on ebay, but they never really had value.

It all personal value really, how you feel about it. I will always like the thing I took the effort to hatch or find over something I get in a minute.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:32:32 No.16607441 Report

Quoted By: >>16607477

>>16607402
Not while they are in the egg numb nuts.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:33:18 No.16607450 Report

Quoted By:

>people butthurt about instacheck ruining their super special shinies' super special worth
>two weeks from now all non gen-vi shinies will be worthless anyway

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:34:24 No.16607462 Report

Quoted By:

It makes me laugh when people group instacheck with the likes of pokegen etc. No, they do not get their perfect shinys instantly. There is still work. For one, you actually have to BREED for your eggs. After so long trying to get perfect parents, you then need to scan them and pray that someone out their matches a decent egg. Even then, it can be difficult trying to find that one person who matches to even hatch the egg for you. This can take days. Instacheck is just like a much faster way of doing MM. Thats pretty much it.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:34:39 No.16607466 Report

Quoted By: >>16607568

>>16607355
It's not 1 in 8000ish now, it's been reduced to like 1 in 4000ish this gen, serebii confirms the increase in shiny rate. Also, each of those pokemon has an individual 1 in 4000ish chance, which is not the same as 5 in 4000ish, all you are doing is increasing the rate at which you encounter pokemon, you're not affecting the odds at all, however 5 1 in 4000ish chances is still better than 1 1 in 4000ish chance

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:35:05 No.16607473 Report

Quoted By: >>16607492

>>16607419
People still don't realize how the ebay thing works?
People bid, then claim the item wasn't received or wasn't received as advertised, and ebay will side with the buyer 100% of the time. Not to mention ebay will suspend the seller account because selling shit like shiny pokemon is against ebay's TOA.

The people bidding are the smart ones, the people selling are idiots.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:35:21 No.16607477 Report

Quoted By: >>16607559

>>16607441
>save
>hatch egg
>check IVs in Kiloude
>reset

IVs checked. All Instacheck does is make it less tedious. Think before you speak

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:35:41 No.16607484 Report

Quoted By:

>Not naming him Peeko

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:36:05 No.16607488 Report

Quoted By: >>16607506

>>16607390
Because it's a challenge to yourself? This is why a lot of people aren't successful. They can't make rules for themselves. There are many things in life that can be done easily, or not. You could drive from place to place, or you could walk. Why would anyone ever walk when they could drive? Well simple because they enjoy it. There is excitement in catching a shiny, and breeding a 31 IV pokemon. Sure other people could do it in seconds (not really, but you know), but your method involve chance. It involved time and effort. If it's something you enjoy, and you like. Or you just want to challenge yourself, then those are reasons.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:36:35 No.16607492 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607473
Oh shit really?

That's too bad, I was gonna offload some instacheck shinies for quick profit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:37:21 No.16607495 Report

Quoted By: >>16607505 >>16607545

in all my years of pokemon i just caught my first every shiny today

it's a furfrou

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:37:30 No.16607496 Report

Quoted By: >>16607524 >>16608654

>>16607317
>Instacheckers are just a bunch of fat, lazy americans who are too used to having everything handed to them on a silver platter.
I do it because I liked Aggron's shiny palette over its regular one, and gen 6's breeding mechanics plus instacheck means it's actually possible to get a perfect IV shiny completely legitimately. If I wanted one like this in any other gen, it'd be almost impossible to get without cheating.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:38:28 No.16607505 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607495
Very nice, even if it has bad ivs, thats a cool pokemon to have as a trophy.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:38:35 No.16607506 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607488
I was saying this in response to the previous post stating the person refused to shiny hunt because someone somewhere else got their own easier.

What does it matter if someone else didn't put in the effort? Shouldn't stop you from getting what you want

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:40:15 No.16607524 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607496
b-but how DARE you c-cheat. How dishonorable! You should hatch 4096 eggs for your shiny like Masuda intended!

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:40:16 No.16607525 Report

Quoted By:

So to summarize this thread and roughly 70% of all other threads here, people on /vp/ are mad and butthurt because other people are achieving equivalent things in a more efficient way.

>m-muh holding the D-Pad!
Good for you. If you get some sort of satisfaction out of knowing that you did something the hard way, keep doing it. Nobody's stopping you.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:42:40 No.16607545 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607495
go forth and destroy good sir. La Reine is best in black

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:44:00 No.16607559 Report

Quoted By: >>16607582 >>16607642

>>16607477
>implying the purpose of instacheck is not sheer expedience

I don't even use IC, you're just not making a coherent argument,

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:45:12 No.16607568 Report

Quoted By: >>16607635 >>16607685 >>16607831

>>16607466
Well if they reduce it to about 1 in 4000 it would be 5 in 4000. You didn't get the point at all did you? The point of the green text was to show that you just run away if you don't get a shiny. Each battle has five pokemon, and each has a 1 in 4000 chance of being shiny. That is 5 1 in 4000 chances of getting a shiny. Which is the same as 5 out of 4000. No it really is. Think of it this way, 1 out of 4000 means that 1 out of 4000 thousand pokemon would be shiny. So if you have 4000 pokemon which may or may not be shiny, then the odds of finding a shiny out of them all would be 1 out of 1. You still might not find them, but you likely will. With a horde battle you have 5 chances.

Another way of explaining it because I don't want to have to try again, I don't want you to not get this. Would be to say we take 4000, diving it by 100. Then we take that number 40 and divide the sample size by it. So 2000/40 = 50. Which says if we have 2000 unchecked pokemon, we have a 50 percent chance of getting a shiny. If we have 1 pokemon the odds are 0.025%, in horde it is 0.125%. And just to be clear, I am talking about the odds of one of the pokemon being shiny. Since that is all you need. If none are shiny you run away. That way in every battle you have a 0.125% chance of finding a shiny, and if we run away and or OHKO all 5 pokes then it takes the same time as a normal 1 pokemon battle. So we have 5 times the chances, in 1 times the amount of time. Or the 5 times the ones.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:46:49 No.16607579 Report

Quoted By:

I really hope next game its only like 1/100 so you autists will shut up.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:47:05 No.16607582 Report

Quoted By: >>16607617 >>16607642

>>16607559
it's not necessarily quick ignorant one. ONce you have the numbers, you still need to find that one person in 4000 that matches the egg you want hatched.

The tdm that is removed is hatching each individual egg instead of scanning and sitting on them until you find a match.

It took me two weeks to find a match for my mareep but less than an hour for a clutch of pawniard. It's still luck

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:47:14 No.16607585 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607317
>not doing something because someone else did it more quickly and with less effort
>better not learn anything bc geniuses
>better not work for money bc bluebloods

Stay butthurt fucker

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:49:46 No.16607617 Report

Quoted By: >>16607672

>>16607582
>it's not faster 100% of the time so it's not faster!
>implying IC is pokegen

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:50:53 No.16607635 Report

Quoted By: >>16607733 >>16607832

>>16607568
You don't understand what he is saying. You don't have a 5/4000 chance, you have 5 1/400 chances. Its different.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:51:12 No.16607642 Report

Quoted By: >>16607672 >>16607890

>>16607582
>>16607559
The real reason to use instacheck isn't to get a shiny FASTER, it's to get an actual usable shiny. I was breeding Larvesta for Masuda method, got one shiny, it had 4IV missing Speed, said "fuck it" and got six 5IV Larvesta eggs and matched the TSV for two of them.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:53:36 No.16607672 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607617
I said not necessarily right in my first sentence.

you're playing the same damn odds just not against the game anymore. It could also take me less than an hour to MM one OR 2 weeks depending on my luck

>>16607642
I'm aware of this. The Mareep I settled on was 31/x/31/31/31/31

That was after sitting on 3 boxes of eggs

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:54:29 No.16607685 Report

Quoted By: >>16607746 >>16607764 >>16607832

>>16607568
>that's 5 1 in 4000 chances which is the same as 5 in 4000
But it's not, 5 1 in 4000 chances is the same as a 5 in 20000 chance, you're the one that doesnt get it.
And if you have 4000 pokemon, you would not have a 1 in 1 chance, you could catch 4000 pokemon and still not have a shiny amongst them, the only way a horde battle would be a 5 in 4000 chance would be if every pokemon in the horde had a different shiny id value, which they dont otherwise finding 2 shinies in 1 horde would be impossible.
Learn basic probability and then come back, I'll wait.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 08:58:38 No.16607733 Report

Quoted By: >>16607832 >>16607900

>>16607635
When talking about the statistics, assuming they are always the same. We multiple the amount, by the odds. 5 x 1/4000 = 5/4000. And I get it, technically it isn't 5/4000, it's 1/4000 five different times. That doesn't really matter though. We calculate the odds the same way we would separate battles. If you did 2000 battles the chances of you getting a shiny would 2000 x 1/4000. Or 2000/4000. Which gives us a 50 percent chance of finding one after 2000 battles. With a horde battle we can think of it as five separate battles, that all take the time of one. Yeah the statistics are all separate, but since the time it takes is the same as a normal battle, it might as well be 5 out of 4000. Since we have 5 chances.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:00:12 No.16607746 Report

Quoted By: >>16607780

>>16607685
They do have separate Shiny values though.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:02:19 No.16607764 Report

Quoted By: >>16607830

>>16607685
I do know probability, but are you telling me that the shiny value is the same for all the pokemon. Well then the odds wouldn't be increased with more pokemon. I did not know that. I assure you it wasn't my understanding of statistics that was the problem, rather the ignorance of the particular subject matter.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:04:27 No.16607780 Report

Quoted By: >>16607797

>>16607746
I know, which is what I'm saying

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:06:10 No.16607797 Report

Quoted By: >>16607836 >>16607885

>>16607780
If they have separate shiny values, then the odds are 5/4000

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:09:42 No.16607830 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607764
No, what you're saying is that you have a 5/4000 chance, which would be like having a hat filled with 4000 numbers and picking out 5, this isnt how it works, you have 5 individual 1 in 4000 chances which is 5/20000 (you're only multiplying one side by 5 when you should be multiplying both sides) it's more like rolling a 4000 sided dice 5 times. does it make more sense now?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:09:44 No.16607831 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607568
Statistics don't work like that

Each mon is separate from the other, with separate chances. It's only 5 in 4000 if they are all dependent on each other (e.g. if one has a shiny value of 5, then the rest cannot have that value). Instead, they can have repeats(e.g. two with a value of 5), so it's not 5/4000

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:09:46 No.16607832 Report

Quoted By: >>16607863

>all this bad math

>>16607635
>You don't have a 5/4000 chance, you have 5 1/400 chances. Its different.
The difference is insignificant, though. The likelihood of running into at least one shiny in a horde is 4.997 out of 4000, assuming the base chance is 1/4000 and that each pokemon has an equal and independent chance of being shiny.

>>16607685
>5 1 in 4000 chances is the same as a 5 in 20000 chance, you're the one that doesnt get it.
I don't even know what you're trying to say here, mind explaining?

>>16607733
>If you did 2000 battles the chances of you getting a shiny would 2000 x 1/4000. Or 2000/4000. Which gives us a 50 percent chance of finding one after 2000 battles
This is wrong, which you can easily see if you consider that being in 4000 battles does not guarantee that a shiny will appear.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:10:11 No.16607836 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607797
doesn't the SV of the mon have to match you TSV to appear shiny?

different SVs shouldn't matter since you're only rolling the RNG for your own number, of which there is only one

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:13:18 No.16607863 Report

Quoted By: >>16607873

>>16607832
Just simply multiplication, 5 x 1/4000 = 5/20000 not 5/4000

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:15:38 No.16607873 Report

Quoted By: >>16607898

>>16607863
Go back to high school, then. 5 x 1/4000 equals 5/4000, and it's not even how you would find the likelihood of at least one shiny in a horde.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:17:03 No.16607885 Report

Quoted By: >>16607923 >>16608356

>>16607797
Statistics does not work that way

Say a horde encounter is like rolling 5 dice. You're saying that rolling five dice gives you a 5/6 chance of getting a 6

It's also like saying flipping five coins gives you a 5/2 chance of getting heads, which doesn't even make sense

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:17:29 No.16607889 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607207
>mfw I captured a shiny eevee at friend safari some days ago
All those shinies are kinda terrible, except for Leafeon, Umbreon and Espeon. I still don't know who to evolve my Eevee to ;_;

(X) Ex 0619-4261-4388 {2112}

(X) Ex 0619-4261-4388 {2112} Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:17:36 No.16607890 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607642
>The real reason to use instacheck isn't to get a shiny FASTER, it's to get an actual usable shiny.

This THis THIS.

WHY do people MM? It' NORMALLY to get usable Shiny Pokemon so that they can, ya know, use them in battle. (Which actually those seem to fuck with MM rates seeing as limiting the nature of your eggs will fuck with the sv in some way. People were looking into this ... unti IC came and everyone said fuck MMing).

Not to trade or part-take in this retarded "Shiny Economy" but to actually use them. IC allows them to get what they want (a Pokemon with the right IVs and nature and egg moves) in the cool color they want. That's all ... I don't see how ICers getting their star pokes together affects how much "worth" someone else shiny is.

I hunt shinys because I like their colors. I ran the FS day in and day out ... encountered 18 shinys doing that (enough "legit" shinys for 3 teams). But I never wanted to MM because even if I like a shiny the road to getting one with the right IVs and nature was too much. Now? I can breed for IVs and egg moves AND get that Pokemon in the shiny colors I like without rolling the dice and hoping the one egg with a sv of 2112 isn't one of the many eggs that may have that one fucked IV in the wrong stat.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:18:57 No.16607898 Report

Quoted By: >>16607928 >>16607939

>>16607873
>5 x 4000 = 4000
You're the one that needs to back to high school

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:18:58 No.16607900 Report

Quoted By: >>16607908 >>16607914

>>16607733

Mathfag here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

You're looking for the cumulative distribution function.
Assuming constant odds (p=1/4000), the probability of having exactly one success in n=5 trials is not 5/4000, but 1-(1-4000)^5, which is 0.12493%, slightly lower than 5/4000=0.125%.
For a small n value, the aproximation p*n (which you used) is pretty accurate. However, if you solve for larger values of n, you will find that this trend doesn't last for long and you need to use the 1-(1-p)^n formula.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:20:54 No.16607908 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607900
ow, fucking stop

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:21:26 No.16607913 Report

Quoted By: >>16607959 >>16608022

You guys are fucking dumb as shit
In hordes the only thing that changes is the amoun of pokémon you encounter at the same time. They're all different pokémon, with different IVs, Natures, Shiny values, etc.
If the chance of a pokémon being shiny is 1/4000, the chance of a pokémon in a horde being shiny is five times that chance, which is 5/4000.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:21:28 No.16607914 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607900
I love you.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:22:42 No.16607923 Report

Quoted By: >>16607977

>>16607885
I just want to say that even though you are correct, the extremely low chance of finding a single shiny does make the chances of finding one or more in a horde very close to 5/4000. You're probably smart enough to know that though, so it's really for the other people in the thread.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:23:02 No.16607925 Report

Quoted By:

So if I'm reading about Instacheck correctly, you get an egg, send it to someone else to hatch and they give you the shiny back? Sorry, but my autism demands MY shinies have my OT name; it's the same reason I never RNG abuse, because I don't want a shiny from some ludicrous date.

Hitting muh d-pad back and forth while doing other things is decent multitasking when I'm bored, although I haven't tried for MM in a long while. My horde shinies are just random encounters that while I appreciate, aren't good for anything but to look at; a pinkish Vanillite and a slightly darker Scraggy.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:23:29 No.16607928 Report

Quoted By: >>16607949

>>16607898
Are you kidding?
When you multiply a real value by a fraction you only multiply it by the numerator.
3 * 1/4 = 3/4
7* 1/2 = 7/2
etc

How dumb do you actually need to be? Go back to middle school you stupid fuck

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:24:46 No.16607939 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607898

http://www.wikihow.com/Multiply-Fractions-With-Whole-Numbers

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:26:46 No.16607949 Report

Quoted By: >>16607956

>>16607928
It's not a fraction though idiot, it's a pobability

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:27:46 No.16607954 Report

Quoted By: >>16607973

Cheating like pokegen and instacheck made them worthless.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:28:08 No.16607956 Report

Quoted By: >>16608006

>>16607949
A probabilty is a number located between 0 and 1, often represented by a fraction.
Hav you ever studied in your life?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:28:25 No.16607959 Report

Quoted By: >>16608017

>>16607913
it's only 5/4000 would be 1/800, yes?

tell me i'm wrong but how do you just shave off 3200 pokemon SVs? Where'd they disappear to?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:29:31 No.16607973 Report

Quoted By: >>16608046

>>16607954
really now? How much were they worth BEFORE pokegen. I'll wait while you get your sources in order

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:29:49 No.16607977 Report

Quoted By: >>16607997

>>16607923
Yep, for the others. I'd let them slide if they went, "It's pretty much 5/4000" but all the bad math is ticking me off

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:31:56 No.16607997 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607977
shut up you pizza-faced turbo virgin

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:33:21 No.16608006 Report

Quoted By: >>16608034

>>16607956
Alright I'll admit i got that one wrong.
the point is 5/4000 implies you are getting 5 DIFFERENT values out of a possible 4000 which is not what we're getting at all

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:34:14 No.16608017 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607959
They don't disappear, but you don't count them because when a horde appears, the only thing that counts it's "Is ANY of them a shiny?".
When the answer is NO, that means number 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are not shinies. For the answer to be YES, it can mean number 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 is a shiny.
It's because in a single encounter you have 5 different variables that your shiny chance is higher. If the chances of being shiny were the same as normal pokemon encounters you'd have all pokemon in a horde being shiny.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:34:57 No.16608022 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607913
Do you mean to say that if a horde consisted of 4000 pokemon that the chance of one of them being a shiny is 4000/4000, or in other words, guaranteed? If so, you are an idiot.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:36:57 No.16608034 Report

Quoted By:

>>16608006
And by different I mean, if 1 pokemon i the horde has a value of 1, none of the others can have a value of 1

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 09:37:56 No.16608046 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607973
Lot more than a legendary

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 10:32:23 No.16608356 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607885
Thank god for the internet. Well after doing some reading, we could take the odds of not finding a shiny. 3999/4000 Then take that to the fifth power, and have the odds of not finding a shiny. Which is just over 99.875%. So in this case it would be nearly 5/4000, but that is merely just a coincidence. I think I got this now, it's not too hard. Sometimes I hate intuition, at times it make's you feel smart, and at others it makes you feel as dumb as a rock. Oh well at least I relearned this aspect of statistics.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 11:39:24 No.16608654 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607496
>using instasheck
>"completely legitimately"

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 18:17:10 No.16612025 Report

Quoted By:

>>16607317
How does instacheck even work? I thought it just let you see what hatches from it. THey still have to go and breed all the eggs.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 11 Dec 2013 18:19:29 No.16612054 Report

Quoted By:

Shinies were never valuable, stop being autistic and complaining about all the time you wasted on nothing.

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