Here you can share useful guides and tips. I'll start:>Tropius is great Pokemon for horde grinding: it can learn both Fly and Sweet Scent, plus it has attacks that hit multiple targets (Earthquake, Razor Leaf). >If you need 5IV Pokemon for your breeding projects, search for non-evolved Pokemon on GTS, there are lots of breeding leftovers available. >For those who breed a lot: instead of using a dime, tuck a small piece of paper (small square-shaped, fold it twice) under you circle pad when cycling around Prism Tower. >Make Wonder Trade better place by releasing shitmons you get from there and only send Pokemon with good IVs (or HA) or Bank exclusives. >In some places, items that can be found with Dowsing Machine respawn after a few days. For example, you can get Prism Scales from Couriway Town's (near the water falls).
Anonymous
Here's how you can get 6IV Pokemon quickly.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
General breeding guide.
Anonymous
General breeding guide (forgot the image on the first time)
Anonymous
Quoted By:
Chain fishing guide
Anonymous
Does anyone have a list of:
Anonymous
Another chain fishing guide.
Anonymous
>>17975914 2/2
>>17975912 >5th gen or older gen Pokemon with useful transfer-only moves I would also be interested if anyone has a list.
>Best Pokemon for use as breeding studs? 6IV Ditto (from different region) is the best thing you can get. I don't have one yet, so I'll use 6IV male Pokemon for their egg groups and 5IV males if I don't have 6IV male from that egg group.
(That guide
>>17975834 might help getting more 6IV Pokemon you need, but you need one 6IV to start the progress. Then you can breed males for other egg groups by breeding Pokemon that are in two egg groups instead of just one).
Anonymous
Quoted By:
IV breeding guide with examples.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
IV breeding guide.
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Phage 3179-6173-4363 [Steel: Mawile, Klang, Klefki] {2867}
Phage 3179-6173-4363 [Steel: Mawile, Klang, Klefki] {2867} Tue 11 Feb 2014 16:22:30 No. 17976044 Report >>17975870 I'll be honest, I've never EV trained anything before, but I want to this gen because for some reason I finally decided to try and get into the competitive scene. What I'm worried about here is wasted EVs when training with the method in this guide. 25 EVs per hoard seems pretty speedy, and if pokerus doubles that to 50 then even better, but does it cap at 252? I know in the past it was possible to waste 3 EVs in a stat to make it 255, but super training caps it at 252 for you. If I'm hoard training with pokerus and I take out 9 hoards, that will put me at 250, but at this point should I stop and find single pokemon for the desired EVs to top off at 252 or will the game auto-cap it for me if I just take out a 10th hoard?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
Type matchup chart.
Anonymous
>>17976044 It auto-caps at 252
Phage 3179-6173-4363 [Steel: Mawile, Klang, Klefki] {2867}
Phage 3179-6173-4363 [Steel: Mawile, Klang, Klefki] {2867} Tue 11 Feb 2014 16:24:49 No. 17976071 Report >>17976055 Sweet, that's been the only reason I haven't started in earnest yet. Everyone was talking about super-training having a "useless ev" cap but nobody ever said anything about otherwise that I saw. Much appreciated.
Manteric 3239-4209-8594 {Pansage, Ivysaur, Gogoat}
Manteric 3239-4209-8594 {Pansage, Ivysaur, Gogoat} Tue 11 Feb 2014 16:25:57 No. 17976086 Report Quoted By:
>>17976071 In the older games it capped at 255, making you waste a point
Anonymous
I know that not many people need this set anymore, but Gallade is still a good catching tool.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
The Berry one is nice
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
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Shiny Pokemon guide from Shiny Hunt Weekend threads.
Anonymous
>>17975834 >not passing nature So it's useless? I mean, if I just want 6IV parent, a 6IV ditto + anything has 1/32 to be 6IV as well.
Anonymous
>>17976267 It's a good method if you want 6IV Pokemon for trades or for breeding projects.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976161 this list needs moe Keen Eye, and the list of moves that have 100% chance to hit and damage doubles vs minimize
Anonymous
Quoted By:
This is all useful as hell guys
Anonymous
Quoted By:
Bumping for more guides
Anonymous
▲̷̨̫̺̙͠͠ - !ZEN/cgElFM
Anonymous
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>>17976474 >brazil >savannah >gamefreak in charge of geography Anonymous
Anonymous
Found this last night, this is one of a few sets of 7 pokemon that allow you to cover every egg group. Essentially, if you get male 6 IVs of each of these pokemon, you can breed toward anything else easily.
▲̷̨̫̺̙͠͠ - !ZEN/cgElFM
Quoted By:
>>17976908 Damn, that is useful. Thanks for posting.
Anonymous
>>17976908 that's raelly fucking neat.
I'm totally gonna breed one of each from scratch so I can gladly live without the slavery of shinese 6IV ditto.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976928 Yeah but you've got to remember that if you have two Pokemon breeding with the same OT they're less likely to produce an egg so you might want to breed those on a different game and trade them over.
Anonymous
>>17976908 Or just get a Ditto
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977047 6IV dittos are hacked shit, you can get that set of poke with not much efforts, at least the ones that have friend safaris and can thus be easily found with 3 or 4 IV
FranKie: 1521-4014-2106 !mXYWAz9zZU
How to get the dex entries for the legends
Anonymous
Anonymous
If by some miracle you're low on money in XY or just need to grind some, use your highest prize money O-Power and take a pokemon with amulet coin into a restaurant. The O-Power won't wear off until after the entire meal is over, so you get a money boost for each battle. Remember that Happy hour stacks with O-Power and Amulet coin for a x12 bonus!
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977081 this is pretty bullshit after tier 2. Giratina palkia and dialga are easy as shit to get thanks to recent event givaway same for last gen since, well, they were there last gen. It's harder to get lugia, groudon and kuogre thanany of the tier 7. regigiggas is also on the same tier as the other regis. And even with that, it highly depends of the hour of the day, the GTS tends to change what's available/asked pretty fast.
Also in case of doubt : put a safari shiny of some popular pokemon, like mawhile, kirlia, breloom or ditto
Anonymous
>>17976103 Isn't it a Dawn Stone?
Anonymous
Anonymous
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>>17977291 Yes. The guide fucked up.
Anonymous
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>>17976908 >That monkey as Field rather then Smeargle C'mon now
Anonymous
I appreciate threads like these.
Stef27: 1075-2049-9629
>>17977437 Do you have any to spare?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977445 Just go grab a Smeargle and sketch those moves (+ Happy Hour from someone nice enough to let you sketch it)
Anonymous
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>>17977437 >Amulet Coin + Happy Hour + Prize money level 3 Would just like to say when I use that I tend to get like1,200 every time I use Payday. A Le Wow run racks up about 300k (I guess 400k if you could the money you had to spend to get in) not counting the mushrooms you get at the end.
Anonymous
A good tip: When breeding, mark all your offsprings IVs using the marking system, even if you're just wonder trading them, this way I don't have to check every fucking charmander I receive and you get your spare pokémon in boxes more organized, and avoid releasing good stuff.>pic related the marks are visible below
Dopekid 1289-9311-3617
Quoted By:
>>17977445 You need one? I just put HH/PD on one if you can give it a good home
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977478 I always check them anyway.
They could be marked for any reason.
Anonymous
>>17976103 I do not miss this "bombastically written infographic" trend. Besides, Smeargle is simply better in this role.
Designated Catcher:
Smeargle
-False Swipe/Hold Back
-Spore
-Soak
-Sticky Web/Mean Look or Gastro Acid
False Swipe/Hold Back and Spore's uses are obvious. Soak is for changing the target's type to Water: now, Ghosts can be hit by False Swipe/Hold Back and Grass Pokemon can be affected by Spore.
Mean Look/Spider Web is for preventing Pokemon from fleeing. If that's no longer a concern, Gastro Acid can negate any meddlesome Abilities.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977777 >quints thread officially derailed
Anonymous
>>17976103 I do not miss this "bombastically written infographic" trend. Besides, Smeargle is simply better in this role.
Designated Catcher:
Smeargle
-False Swipe/Hold Back
-Spore
-Soak
-Sticky Web/Mean Look or Gastro Acid
False Swipe/Hold Back and Spore's uses are obvious. Soak is for changing the target's type to Water: now, Ghosts can be hit by False Swipe/Hold Back and Grass Pokemon can be affected by Spore.
Mean Look/Spider Web is for preventing Pokemon from fleeing. If that's no longer a concern, Gastro Acid can negate any meddlesome Abilities.
Anonymous
>>17977796 only if you pokegen that fucker, cause good luck getting that moveset copying wild pokes;
Anonymous
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>>17977842 Double/triple battles, retard
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977842 can't you copy in online battles with other fellow /vp/oreons?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977842 What are double/triple battles or wild ditto.
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 19:33:48 No. 17977972 Report I have about 211 BP and I want to go competitive. What should I get and is it worth it to go past round 51 in Super Singles?
Anonymous
Where can I get Happy Hour Smeargle?
Anonymous
>>17977972 You should go with the standard shit first. Life orb, focus sash, assault vest, weakness policy, choice band/specs/scarf. After that get stuff that might fit specific pokemon better, like toxic/flame orb, air balloon, white herb, or power herb. Also, if you don't have the power items for EV training, I would suggest you get those first.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977796 I use a team for hunting Pokemon:
Slot one: A Pokemon with Syncronize (I have one for every non-neutral nature)
OR
A Pokemon with Cute Charm for seeking specific genders
A Pokemon with Trace for confirming Abilities
A Pokemon that knows Sweet Scent for summoning hordes
That Smeargle
Anonymous
>>17976908 Wait, so you're telling me that if I get those Pokémon in all the Pokeballs, I can pass them down on every other mon?
Anonymous
>>17978217 >Not knowing how ball inheritance works. Anonymous
>For those who breed a lot: instead of using a dime, tuck a small piece of paper (small square-shaped, fold it twice) under you circle pad when cycling around Prism Tower.
Anonymous
>>17977133 Bonus points: Use A Smeargle that holds an Amulet coin and knows
-Happy Hour
-Payday
-Revover
-Dark Void/Spore
Now just use Dark Void, then Happy Hour followed by Payday eight, nine or ten times (I'm still not completely sure what's the maximum) and kill everything else with your other mon.
Anonymous
>>17978230 I just stick a guitar pick slightly underneath. Fuck tiny coins and folding paper, this works perfectly
Anonymous
>>17978217 No, they're not telling you that... they didn't say anything about Pokeballs.
The mom passes down whatever ball she is in. A female Raticate in an Ultra ball has Ultra Ball babies. Males do not pass on Pokeballs. Genderless and Ditto do not pass on Pokeballs. It's impossible to breed a Porygon that's in anything other than a standard red ball, for example.
Anonymous
>>17978229 >>17978281 Well, if I have a female one of each with every ball, I could pass them down on others, that again can pass them down to every mon I need, no?
Anonymous
>>17978261 -There's no maximum usage of Pay Day
-There's no reason Smeargle can't attack on its own. At a high level, there's hardly anything the game can throw at it that it can't defeat.
>>17977437 Anonymous
>>17978322 It is capped at 18,000 Pokedollars.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17978289 No, because mothers give birth to their own species. If you want a Meowth in a Love Ball, for example, you can't use any of those seven as mothers because they can't produce a baby Meowth.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17978289 No. The whole point of those 7 pokemon is that they must be male. The ball is only inherited from the female. See the problem?
Anonymous
>>17978338 [citation needed]
Anonymous
>>17978361 Try it out yourself.
You won't get more than that no matter how many times you use the move.
Anonymous
>>17978370 So strange that this absolute fact isn't documented anywhere on the net.
Anonymous
>>17978526 And yet you would agree with it if you'd just try it out yourself.
Go to Le Wow and spam the move until you run out of PP. You'll get 18,000 after the first battle.
Next round only use it 10 or 11 times and you'lll get 18,000 as well.
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 20:25:37 No. 17978627 Report >>17978108 I got two Life Orbs by accident the other day. Forgot my Nidoking was carrying the first one. As for the EV items, why? Super Training exists. I'll go for the Choice items but I'm surprised how far I got without one. My team for the Maison is...
Tyranitar
Mawile
Garchomp
Tyranitar used to be a speedy attacker last gen with the scarf but due to weather changes she merely starts one with a Smooth Rock and not much else. Finally, why the fuck does she get hit by Electric attacks? Rock types are immune to those.
Anonymous
>>17978627 >doing super training as opposed to horde sweeping 50 EVs per battle is too good to pass up
Electric is neutral against Rock, you're thinking of Ground.
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
>>17978627 >As for the EV items, why? Super Training exists. Because hordes are faster.
Anonymous
>>17978627 With pokerus+power item, horde EV training nets you 50 or 60 points per battle. It's so much faster than super training.
Anonymous
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>>17978602 At Level 100, you'd max out at 3 uses with x12 multiplier.
Anonymous
>>17978682 If you happen to have those things, that is. If you don't, Super Training is faster.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17978848 That's the whole point of buying them, so you can avoid wasting time with super training. Even if you don't have them, then just use the macho brace, you will get 20 or 40 points per battle, which is still faster than super training.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976160 >mfw jewing Latios for an Eevee. Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976474 >tfw California gets shit tier high plains Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 20:54:44 No. 17979020 Report >>17978682 >>17978660 >>17978663 I doubt my level 1 Mawile would have attacks that can hit everyone. Or survive...oh wait, there's EXP share. I'll stick with Super Training and vitamins for now. Running around until a hoard pops up sounds like a pain.
Anonymous
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>>17979020 Just use an oddish with sweet scent.
Anonymous
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>>17979020 That's why you use Sweet Scent you fool.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979020 Sweet Scent brings the hordes to you, my friend.
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
Quoted By:
>>17979020 >what is sweet scent Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 21:03:48 No. 17979164 Report Fine fine, I'll try it out with the next newborn Pokemon. Thankfully my team caught Pokerus from a safari. Rotom's still decent, right?
Anonymous
>>17979020 >I doubt my level 1 Mawile would have attacks that can hit everyone. what is rock slide?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979164 Pretty much. Rotom-w is still sitting high up in OU, especially now that it can threaten everyone's favorite OU frog and bird: greninja and talonflame.
Anonymous
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>>17976103 I bumped into this image again the other day and decided, what the hell, might as well breed one up. I decided to toss Skill Swap onto it to for finding Abilities. Then I got Mean Look, and the final move set is going to be False Swipe/Mean Look/Heal Pulse/ Skill Swap, so that I'll be ready for just about anything.
First egg that hatched with everything in place: blue little hat. I got a shiny on the first perfect egg, male and right natured. I hadn't focused on the IVs yet, so they're shit, but I'm not even mad. Big Blue is going to be my main catcher for many years to come.
Anonymous
>>17979020 >Wasting BP on vitamins >Not knowing about sweet scent >Would rather play a stupid minigame rather than maxing EVs in a single stat after 6 horde battles Everyones telling you the fastest and most efficient way to EV train and you'd rather shooting at balloons. How autistic are you?
Anonymous
>>17975802 >>For those who breed a lot: instead of using a dime, tuck a small piece of paper (small square-shaped, fold it twice) under you circle pad when cycling around Prism Tower. If you have them, a Magic card folded in half will also work.
use a cluestone or a shit common, unless you want to make your playable cards worthless Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 21:25:51 No. 17979486 Report >>17979328 Alright already! I get it. EV training is now child's play. It's just a matter of where to go.
>>17979178 And that a Rock Slide from a level 1 Pokemon can wipe out an entire horde.
Still, I can't overdo it. Don't want to go above 252. The punching bags and Super Training at least let me keep a close count.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979486 You can't go over 252 anymore. All EVs are capped at 252 instead of 255.
Anonymous
>>17979475 >Not using the advert cards or at the very least a basic land let's be rational here.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979486 Worry not; in XY you literally cannot exceed 252 in a stat.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979486 The limit has changed to 252 in gen VI
No need to worry.
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce)
Jason 3823-9536-0483 (Ditto, Loudred, Dunsparce) Tue 11 Feb 2014 21:39:19 No. 17979631 Report Son of a bitch, really? So there's close to no reason to do Super Training then. A shame, I kinda like it. Then again, I don't have a Power item.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979505 >using basic land >keeping advertisement tokens Basic land is something that you'll need in just about every deck. Don't waste that shit.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979631 Basically. Super training is only useful if you need to get exact EVs, like 36 in a stat or something like that. If you are maxing stats, then horde training takes only a few minutes.
Anonymous
>>17979631 Well, the reason to do super training is to get to the super secret training which gives access to unlimited evo-stones. I don't think there is a better way of getting stuff like Dusk, Sun, and Shiny stones than SSTraining
Anonymous
>>17979631 >A shame, I kinda like it That's reason enough if you ask me. It's not the most efficient, but you can still do it.
I hate it only because it's practically for righties only Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979776 This. I do the Secret Super Training a lot because I think it's
fun , and I have, like, 150 evo stones from it. I'm good for life, mang.
Anonymous
>Ultra Rare Juice: Purchase from left counter
Anonymous
>>17979834 I got completely used to it after fully training my Axew in Atk/Spe. The circle pad isn't really needed, just charge your shots and go wild.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979946 I can get by in most, but try HP level 3. You can't really get by with not dodging in that.
Anonymous
>>17979939 That is an excellent question. I'll start researching that. Just as a test, do me a favor and tell me what juice they're selling for you today. I'll go check to, and if they're different, we'll know that it's random. If it's the same, we can start looking into it.
If anyone else would go and see what's on sale right now, that would be helpful. Gotta' get a large sample size.
3497-0901-1773 James
Does anyone in this thread have this hard to come by smeargle that knows happy hour and pay day???
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
>>17979939 I've got some from Gen V.
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
Anonymous
So is there any way to transfer Pokemon directly from Diamond/Pearl to X/Y? Or is it only possible through the PokeBank B/W shenanigans?>tfw just realized I have my legit Jirachi on Diamond from Pokemon Colloseum
Anonymous
>>17980214 >>17980234 Thank you so much.
>>17980139 Pink, Red and Blue are in my Shoppe today.
Anonymous
>>17980139 I'm pretty sure it's just random. I've soft resetted and gotten a completely different selection, kind of like the ID-Loto.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17980350 I have Rare, Pink, and Green.
>>17980353 Yep, looks random. However, if you can SR for it, that could be really helpful. Thanks for the tip.
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius)
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius) Tue 11 Feb 2014 22:35:41 No. 17980409 Report >>17980332 Only gen 5 can use Poketransfer to get shit into the Pokebank. So you have to at least get your shit into a Gen 5 game.
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius)
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius) Tue 11 Feb 2014 22:38:32 No. 17980445 Report >>17980353 so the juices are determined the first time the game is booted each day? I assume it's also updated at midnight if you're playing across the day border.
Is there any infographic or guide for stuff like priority moves and other basic competitive-type information?
Anonymous
>>17980409 Alright, thanks. Is there a way to transfer previous generations into B/W? Like, flat-out transferring or something like Pal Park?
Never played B/W, don't really know
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius)
Jssemi [5215-0012-0664] (Pidgey, Woobat, Tropius) Tue 11 Feb 2014 22:41:36 No. 17980500 Report Quoted By:
>>17980454 postgame BW has some laboratory you can go to, once you're set up in there you can use a second DS with another game and use the download play feature to sent pokemon over, it's how I xfered my legends and shit out of HeartGold so I could restart it for a nuzlocke when bank came out.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17980445 No, they seem to be determined when you talk to the clerk (within a 24 hour period). Once you talk to him, it's set, but you can reset if you saved before you talk to him and get a different selection.
3067 5639 3615
Which is a faster way of getting shinies in general? MM or FS?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17980559 According to those in /shw/ the FS but no guarantee on IVs or nature or gender except with the relevant abilities.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17979486 >And that a Rock Slide from a level 1 Pokemon can wipe out an entire horde. surf/ earthquake from a 50+ level mon with exp share on.
christ, what the fuck are you doing?
Arturo 4854 7092 8451
Quoted By:
>>17980205 >>>17978047 I can give you a Happy Hour Smeargle. Maybe later i should do some Dark Void Semargles or something like that.
Anonymous
>>17980559 Depends on what you want out of it.
If you're looking for just a trophy, Fishing, Radar, and Friend Safari is all good. Fishing is piss easy, requiring the least amount of skill and time. I've been able to get a shiny every hour or so at worst. Radar is good too once you know how to do it, but it's a bit more time consuming. Both of those cap at approximately a 1/200 chance per roll once you get to a chain of 40. Radar is slightly better in that regard, since there are 4 valid patches per use, bringing the odds down to 1/50 per reset, but the time taken to reset makes it a bit slower than fishing.
Friend Safari is slightly better due to the guaranteed IVs, but without a Synchronize user, the natures are an issue, and the odds are also estimated to be lower than Chaining, though the exact numbers are currently unknown. Estimates put it at between 1/300 and 1/2000. We really have no idea.
Masuda provides your highest chances of having a competitively viable shiny, but it is vastly lower odds, also unknown, but without good estimate, to my knowledge.
Point is, different strokes for different folks. I use all of them for various things.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17978280 This. Guitar picks work perfect for the c-pad trick. Protip: If you breed, learn to play guitar.
Or just buy some picks Anonymous
>>17980992 Masuda actually increases the odds, its like 1/430, according to a smogon spreadsheet
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17981178 Oh, I should have clarified that. My bad.
And that's interesting, I'll have to dig that up. Thanks.
Anonymous
>>17981178 No way--certainly not all by itself. Even if Shiny Charm is factored in, that's just too high. We don't even know the actual rate; we're assuming it's the same as Gen V, but since that rate was raised from Gen IV's, one can't assume with certainty.
Anonymous
>>17981273 The spreadsheet is biased at the moment. Instead of asking people to hatch 1000 eggs and report, lots of people jsut come and say "I got one in one box lol". nobody has engouh eggs alone to get a good value at the moment. I agree 1/400 is too good. I think it's more like 1/800 at the very least. but we can't be sure until they get more people going for more than 4000-5000 eggs each. too much bias otherwise, especially by cherry picking "winners" and not "quitters" who have extremely shitty stike of bad luck.
Anonymous
>>17981384 Aha--if they're trying to come up with figures based on a relatively small sample, there's just no way they'll be even close to accurate. I'm actually quite surprised that a group as precise as Smogon thinks that this study holds water.
Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet)
Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet) Tue 11 Feb 2014 23:31:36 No. 17981440 Report >>17980992 my current safari + shiny charm count is 7/3600. had a pretty long serie of nothing today (700 an still counting) which makes my current ratio drop quite a bit compared to this week end. I intend to go to at least 10 000 or even 15 000 at the very least to sponge up all possible misscounting happening, since I multitask and sometime I might either forget to add, or validate twice the same battle.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17981384 If the rate is unchanged from Gen V, Masuda Method's chances are 1/1365 (1/1024 with Shiny Charm). I'd much sooner side with those presumed numbers than with faulty rates based on self reporting. Actual winners do not equal odds of winning.
Anonymous
>>17981426 In theory it could work, but they need more samples. I find it suspicious that their best guy had 10 in a mere 4000 eggs. Even with shiny charm, most people in shiny hunt are going for 20-30 boxes per shiny. took me 40 box for a buneary with shiny charm, and literally nobody in their chart seem to have had such bad luck. It's just.. too good.
Anonymous
>>17981426 Actually they have only taken data from people who manage to get a shiny and keep breeding (until a round number like 100/200/300/etc..) and from people who didn't manage to get any shiny, and how many eggs they hatched
Anonymous
>>17981567 They sample is too low, though. Jesus, look at all those people with 100<entries. I just hope their top 20 participant are motivated enough to reach 10K eggs each.
Anonymous
>>17981623 Do you have a link to the research?
Anonymous
Anonymous
>>17981523 It is too good. I can flip a coin 1,000 times and get heads 750 times. That doesn't mean the odds of flipping heads are 75%.
>>17981567 Even if their data collection was as careful as possible, it's still inherently flawed. The only way we'll have an accurate rate is once the game code is analyzable. I think we're much better off presuming the rates are the same as Gen V than we are trying to find an absolute from a small sample of people.
When BW came out, people were reporting shinies all the time and the people began to assume that shiny encounter rates simply HAD to have been increased, until the game data was analyzed and it was found that while the Masuda Method rate was increased a bit, the likelihood otherwise remained the same.
Anonymous
>>17981680 They're doing a good job.. except for those faggots with 400- eggs... (and there are two guys with 2 shinies in 200 eggs... fml)
Anonymous
>>17981440 That's very interesting. With those numbers, you're extremely close to 1/512, which is a very logical number. Do you have the Shiny Charm?
>>17981523 >>17981567 >>17981623 The big issue here, in my eyes, is that the survey is going to naturally have a positive skew. They're only reporting totals once they get a shiny, so they're losing all of those people who hatch 3000 eggs and then quit. That alone invalidates it completely. We need people to just hatch 10k eggs and report how many shines they got. That's the only way.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17981680 the data are weird. It's like shiny chances explode once they have have more than 2000 eggs.
Anonymous
>>17981736 They could each have 10,000 eggs, it's not going to get you an accurate result. The # of shinies hatched out of the total # of eggs hatched DOES NOT REPRESENT the actual chances of hatching a shiny.
>fml You sound like you really know what you're talking about.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17981780 That is exactly how they are trying to do it... Some people don't update their data though
Anonymous
>>17981833 they don't represent the actual chances, but can give you an approximation to that value
Anonymous
>>17981833 the problem is that when you don't know the actual proba, you can't really know when you reached an acceptable number of trie. If the chances are really 1/400 then 400 000 eggs would probably work, the problem would be ASSUMING it's 1/400 when it's actually 1/1000 and they make a conclusion with only 400 000 eggs instead of something like 1 million.
Their 200 000 egg goal is certainly too small of a sample for sure.
Anonymous
>>17981900 >>17981697 Does 75% seem like a good approximation of a coin toss? How about 90% or 20%?
Anonymous
>>17981908 it looks like they have been increasing their goal over the time
>>17982002 Try tossing a coin 5000 times and tell me how many times you get Heads or Tails
Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet)
Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet) Wed 12 Feb 2014 00:04:50 No. 17982058 Report Quoted By:
>>17981780 >That's very interesting. With those numbers, you're extremely close to 1/512, which is a very logical number. Do you have the Shiny Charm? yes, I have the shiny charm. It would be interesting to have someone doing it without the charm to compare and estimate how much the charm boosts it.
After the safari I'll probably try hordes since in theory it's also extremely high. then maybe Masuda but I doubt I can catch up smogon's data by then. I'll still note my personal masuda's success rate because I actually think the console hate me. (before the charm, I never encountered a wild shiny in 300 hours of game)
Anonymous
>>17982051 If I get Heads 3627 times, does that mean we have a 72.5% chance?
This is not how odds are determined. Knowing the maximum amount of possible outcomes does. We can't know this through hatching 500 or 5,000,000 eggs.
Anonymous
>>17981900 Not really. We know that shiny chances are somewhere around 1/4000 to the very optimistic 1/500. You would needat least 100 times those numbers in eggs to have a proper evaluation. If we all organiezd and made a concerted effort with 5 or 6 people, then it would be achievable, but you can't do it with a single person's number, you need too much.
Anonymous
>>17982091 record it and put it here please, we'd like to see how good of a coin flipper are you
Anonymous
>>17982150 >we'd like to see how good of a coin flipper are you >implying that you can be "good" at something with a 50/50 outcome I get the sense that this is all too much for you to wrap your head around, so I relent.
Anonymous
>>17976295 Trades or breeding with no guaranteed nature? Not worth imo.
Anonymous
>>17982167 >implying I have a head And how can you not be good at coin flipping?
Anonymous
>>17982091 >Knowing the maximum amount of possible outcomes Yeah, if you want to get technical, that doesn't really determine the probabilities, unless each event is equally probable, which is a completely ad hoc assumption usually enforced because it makes sense. There's no real mathematical reason to assume it, though. Also, you can be as angry as you want, but flipping a coin 5000 times should give you a slight aproximation of the probability for it to come out heads. I know, it doesn't hold up scientifically, but you do realize we are discussing pokémon, right?
Anonymous
>>17982150 don't use a real coin flip. It's not really random. Theoretically a toss made with the same amount of force leads to the same trajectory and result. tossing 5000 time will not give you the coin chances, but more like the % of regularity of your coin toss hand move.
Anonymous
>>17982227 Odds don't stipulate whether or not something WILL occur, and occurrences don't stipulate the odds of something.
You have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6 on a die. That doesn't mean that if you roll a die six times, exactly one roll WILL be a 6.
You might roll a 6 one time, or six times, or four times.
None of these outcomes changes the actual odds: if you have six possible outcomes and desire one, the odds are 1:6.
I repeat: the odds do not guarantee the outcome. The outcome does not guarantee the odds.
>Yeah, if you want to get technical. We're talking about a video game, which is comprised of a series of formulas and calculations. There's no reason NOT to be technical.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17977133 Why restaurants when you can black writ the chateaux?
Anonymous
Anonymous
>>17982227 >you do realize we are discussing pokémon, right? Is this to suggest that we shouldn't be putting that much thought/effort into the topic, because lol it's only pokeymon? Because if so, tell that to the guys aggregating thousands of eggs & shinies for the purpose of trying to find a shiny rate.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982326 The topic is shiny rate, and how it's determined. We are on topic.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982291 on the other hand, dealing with video games means we aren't in a real random situation, and most random generation algorithms are more predictable than real rolls, to the point you usually converge to your random ratio fast. The 3DS seems to be especially shit with its random to my personal experience. When things have a certain percentage to happen then tend to verify that percentage really quick. I wouldn't be surprised if that console works like a casino machine, aka the random is about shuffling a list or rolls and reshuffle once they all happened.
Anonymous
>>17982291 no, they don't guarantee anything. But roll a six sided die (preferably on the computer, where your shitty hand coordination won't be a factor) 10000 times. Now check the number of ones and divide by the total number of rolls. Do this exact experiment 10000 times and compare the 10000 results for the probability of rolling a one. That should be enough to convince you (who is not a referee for a peer reviewed paper) that the numbers are ok to a nice extent. If not, fuck right off, the only way we can tell for sure in a way that is absolutely correct is by having access to the game code in some way.
Anonymous
>>17982359 No. That is to say we are not discussing variance in the medical sciences, we don't need actual 100% trustworthy results and can, very comfortably, work with assumptions.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982403 Tour experiment only work if you actually know the variables of the roll, witch isn't the case for a shiny egg hatch. For instance we can't be sure if the final data after one million eggs is "a lucky low ratio" or "an unlucky good ratio".
Anonymous
>>17978663 U know the event items work with supertraining right? Combined with punching bags should be awesome.
Anonymous
>>17982403 10,000 trials for a 1:6 likelihood may (MAY) be fairly commensurate.
Without referring back to Gen V code (because if we do, why not just stick with it and call it a day?), do you know what the total possible outcomes are?
Even if you somehow did (let's say 8,192), by your argument, we'll need 13.7 million eggs for a fair comparison.
>If not, fuck right off, the only way we can tell for sure in a way that is absolutely correct is by having access to the game code in some way. In essence, you are saying "fuck off, you what you've been saying is right all along." Thanks!
Anonymous
>>17982428 we don't need actual 100% trustworthy results and can, very comfortably, work with assumptions.
So why bother with a heavily flawed experiment at all? Why not just comfortably assume that the rates are akin to those of Gen V?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982478 super training is shit, it's a system that is only efficient when you have finished the training, and worse, you lose an incredibly pointless amount of time just browsing the menus and waiting for the actual training to start. A good horde is faster, and trains your whole team at the same time with multi exp. There's no such thing as "my lvl1 mawile can't kill shit". Who cares, it's not its job, you use sweet sent with a poke, and kill the horde with one of your level 100 surf slave. if you have pokerus it takes maybe 5 battles to max a stat.
Anonymous
>>17982497 >In essence, you are saying "fuck off, you what you've been saying is right all along." Thanks! Exactly. You are absolutely right, that's the only 100% way of knowing. Having access to the "code" is also the only 100% way of knowing that we are right about how the universe works in pretty much every regard. How do you know we are no just making lucky rolls? Maybe you should move to stop science, it's useless.
Come on dude, Yeah, I do agree, the number of eggs necessary for any kind of confidence in the data is enourmous, but the point still stands that it can be done and, even with a number as small as 100k eggs, if the experiment is repeated enough times we can have a measure of confiability in variance. You don't need to be a dick, you can just sit down and think about it.
Anonymous
>>17982581 >Maybe you should move to stop science, it's useless. Or move to advance it. That's what science does, try to unravel the mysteries. It's all about discovering the "code."
The only "scientific" thing about this pursuit is that it's akin to a middle school science fair project. All it's really doing is quantifying how lucky a group of people have been.
Anonymous
>>17982520 Hasn't it been proved to be at least twice the chances? That's out of the comfort zone.
Anonymous
>>17982654 I don't know what you're saying. What's "it?" Twice the chances of what? How's "it" been "proven?"
Anonymous
>>17982648 Oh fuck. tell me then, how do you think physics works? I'm interested. Say I want to figure out the part of the code related to electromagnetism, how should we do it if not by measuring (the current point we are at), proposing a theory (we have basis from gen V, wether you like it or not, so we can draw paralels so long we have data to back that up), and the testing that?
Anonymous
>>17982677 >that the rates are akin to those of Gen V >Been talking about shiny rates all this time >"hey, I don't know what you are saying" Ok.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
mina-san, please stop
Anonymous
>>17982654 Gen V data enters in conflict with Masuda since it was capped last get at 1/1000 with the charm.
from serebii :
>This Key Item increases the likelihood that you will encounter Shiny Pokémon. When you have the item in your bag, then the chances of encountering Shiny Pokémon in the wild is increased to 300% of normal, making it a 1 in 2,370.6 chance. If, however, you're using the Masuda Method to breed, it increased it from 1 in 1,365.3 down to 1 in 1024. Anonymous
>>17982719 How has it been "proven" that the chances are double?
Dr !KEK.SVdDOw
Quoted By:
If you run into Talonflames prevo early on, catch it. Its good utility for breeding (Flame Body) and flying through Kalos.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982768 Great, all the more reason to try something out. I'm not averse to actual math being put in place here. Knowing how far your results can be trusted is primordial here. But hey, we have no known shiny chances, even ballpark approximations are better than nothing. It can be improved later, or this experiment can be abandoned as soon as someone has a better idea, which none of you do. You may strongly disagree that this will take us anywhere, and maybe it wont, but hey we'll just be back where we started and at least we tried something.
Anonymous
>>17982699 >I took "code" literally, despite quotation marks. I'm not dense. I never compared, nor would compare, the realm of physics to a simple formula for a lottery's chances.
Anonymous
>>17982821 by having some pokémon PID screened and noticing that some pokémon that shouldn't be shiny are, in fact, shiny. Remember instacheck?
Anonymous
>>17982821 probably people analyzed the game rom and found the variable associated with it? Seems rather hard when digging compiled binary but who knows, with an emulator you can probably check the registry usage and compare you r game meory before and after you get the charm so the changes become visible in an ocean of unreadable code.
Anonymous
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>>17982871 Okay, are you talking Gen V, or VI? If V, we've all already known that and it's never been in question here. If VI, no, no one's done that.
Anonymous
>>17982860 How do you get a "doubled" figure from that?
Anonymous
>>17982847 >I'm not dense I don't know about that, man...
Anyway, that is how you deal with shit you don't know dude. We would love to see the game code, but unless you have access to it, we have to make do without it. Now, there are ways to determine how "good" are statistical results and we can use all of those to check our things. They will never, ever be 100% trustworthy, but we have one more clue you are really adamant on ignoring: The games were made by people, and so were rationally designed. Things most likely "make sense", so we can make assumptions based on that. I'm glad we are agreeing on this.
Dr !KEK.SVdDOw
>>17982860 This. Im 100% certain the shiny rate has been halved.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17982948 Ok, listen, there was a bunch of crazy shit you did with pokémon PIDs back in the day which I'm really not in the mood of explaining. The thing is , pokémon was shiny if the result was lesser than 8. It has been proven that results less than at least 16 are shiny (nothing with a different number has come up). It has also been shown that pokémon PIDs and the trainer IDs and whatnot are still randomly generated. Hence, doubled.
Dr !KEK.SVdDOw
Quoted By:
>>17982948 There were only 4092 shiny ID variables. Thats half of 8192, the old shiny rate.
Anonymous
>>17982994 I think you mean doubled.
But I agree, it seems to have vastly increased.
Anonymous
>>17982959 >t we have one more clue you are really adamant on ignoring: The games were made by people, and so were rationally designed. I'm not ignoring that; I explicitly said that earlier. What Smogon is doing has no bearing on that.
Once millions and millions of eggs are hatched, maybe we'll have something we can safely "make assumptions" on. Making assumptions based on preliminary results is folly.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976474 I live on Long Island and my Vivillon is Modern.
Anonymous
>>17982403 >the only way we can tell for sure in a way that is absolutely correct is by having access to the game code in some way. >The only way we can be absolutely correct about a mathematical formula in existence is if we go into the 5th dimension and examine 3D space. Holy shit are you retarded. This isn't rocket science, its basic high school statistics and you don't need a hacker or see game code inorder to determine SIMPLE probability.
Nothing in the Smogon spreadsheet shows any sort of bias. A large sample size from individuals (eggs) and a large sample OF individuals. Data on a silver platter. They don't stop hatching when they get a shiny, they stop when they hit a designated batch number. People pledge 100 eggs, they keep hatching until they hit 100 eggs and if a shiny pops up then they note it.
ITT people know absolutely NOTHING about statistics. A good estimate of the margin of error (or confidence interval) is given by 1/√N, where N is the number of participants or sample size.
10,000 yields a 1% margin of error. 10,000 eggs, from more than a few dozen people was fucking overkill and all of you still want more?. 20,000 eggs?!?!? 10,000 eggs from a single person?!?!
1/465 is confirmed, I wonder if any of you are able to even read/understand any of the tables on the left of the spreadsheet.
I hope none of you breed.
Anonymous
>>17983021 >Making assumptions based on preliminary results is folly ... I'm curious, are you one of those high school students who want to go to college and "be a scientist"? Because, really, working with actual science for any amount of time really rids you of that stupidly smug attittude.
Anonymous
>>17983075 Dude. Please stop. I actually agree with you, but the only true 100% way of knowing that is by seeing game code. In fact, shiny rate may change with the date on your 3DS for all we know. Maybe in 2030 GF decided we should get 1/2 shiny rate? Who knows? The only way of knowing for sure is by looking at the game code.
And yes, that sounds stupid. We know they wouldn't do that. That is my point all along.
Anonymous
>>17983075 >A good estimate of the margin of error (or confidence interval) is given by 1/√N You know, this is only true if your RNG has no correlation problems. While I doubt that GF and nintendo would be stupid enough to make such a rookie mistake, it's always a possibility.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
Anymore guides some nigga is holding out on posting?
Anonymous
>>17983139 >I actually agree with you, but the only true 100% way of knowing that is by seeing game code. You're stating the obvious, the question is why would you need to? This is akin to solving a math problem where 1+1=2 and then looking at the back of your book to make sure that, yes the answer is 2. You don't need to look at the code to be sure.
Anonymous
>>17983018 >>17982994 tell that to people like me who played several hundred of hours in the wild with no shiny. I doubt the base rate changed, it's just that hordes made the poke generation much faster on average. Also people actually using it to ev train intensively
Anonymous
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>>17983251 Yes. Thank you for condensing my whole point in one simple post. Maybe
>>17983021 gets it now.
Anonymous
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>>17983193 actually GF loves to reuse bytes from other part of the data structure to calculate shit instead of allocating proper independent variables so it's not impossible that their randomization is flawed in a way or the other.
Older games allowed RNG prediction after all.
Anonymous
>>17983270 Anecdotal evidence holds no water to data. There only 4092 shiny IDs available. Why do you think so many old school poker pros have been edged out by probability kids on the WPT.
Anonymous
>>17983082 That's the second time you've questioned my intelligence. I can feel you slipping.
I'm sorry, I still stand by what I said. The results aren't anywhere near enough to glean a conclusion and treat as a "safe assumption."
Anonymous
>>17976103 >sleep is twice as effective as paralysis this isnt true, is it?
Anonymous
>>17983251 The guy who asserts he's the only one here who can into maths asserts that you should never check your work/verify your answer. Yeah, I'm going to throw in with this guy.
Anonymous
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>>17983356 >Why do you think so many old school poker pros have been edged out by probability kids on the WPT. this is anecdotal, though.
Anonymous
>>17983358 >That's the second time you've questioned my intelligence. I can feel you slipping Not really, I've been questioning it for a while, but this post is not an example of it. Being in high school is no demerit, though it usually means you are a teenager and has no idea of what you are saying. In fact, in that post, I was doubting that you could be as stupid as you seem, and are simply naive.
Anonymous
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>>17983410 http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Catch_rate >bonusstatus is the multiplier for any status ailment the Pokémon has (2 for sleep and freeze, 1.5 for paralyze, poison and burn, and 1 otherwise). In Gen IV and V, sleep and freeze increased to 2.5
But that was then. Maybe they changed it in Gen VI. Let's try catching the same Pokemon a couple hundred times and come up with a rate based on that.
Anonymous
>>17983476 I'm sure playing the smug, smarter-than-thou role feels great, but it's not doing anything to make me feel smaller than you. That's not the point, anyway; I remain unconvinced that the "shiny rate" research attempt holds any water.
Anonymous
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>>17983553 >I'm sure playing the smug, smarter-than-thou role feels great, but it's not doing anything to make me feel smaller than you Don't worry, you'll grow out of it.
>That's not the point, anyway; I remain unconvinced that the "shiny rate" research attempt holds any water. Ok.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17983356 >There only 4092 shiny IDs available. while a clue, without the full algorithm it's not a definitive proof since only 16 bits out of those 13 really bear a relevance to shininess. The rest is typical GF "individualization" data that might or not (probably not) impact some other variable, a la hidden power;
Anonymous
>>17983553 >I remain unconvinced that the "shiny rate" research attempt holds any water. Can you not into maths? Everything is sound, the only thing missing is a control group for those without shiny charms to hatch eggs but then again it wasn't an experiment to compare the rates but to determine shiny rates with the charm.
I swear, this is Ken Ham vs Bill Nye all over again.
Anonymous
>>17983678 >[# of shinies]/[# of total eggs] = shiny chance >"everything is sound" Anonymous
>>17983740 >Bayesian Statistics Anonymous
>>17983758 >Such an interpretation is only one of a number of interpretations of probability and there are other statistical techniques that are not based on "degrees of belief." Anonymous
>>17983838 nice wiki search. Still works and there's even a theorem to prove it.
Anonymous
>>17983427 Again, why would you need it? I would understand if it were a more complex problem but it isn't. Statistics isn't hard man.
You're basically asking to double check the numbers of the problem I'm solving when you have an answer that fits the problem because we can never be sure that the numbers to the problem will actually produce the answer we came up with.
Anonymous
>>17983867 Then trot it out and prove this egg spreadsheet "works."
Anonymous
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>>17983877 I'm certain that you, too, have screencapped the thread so that when the game is finally hacked and the actually rate is revealed, you'll be able to say "I told you so." Because there's no chance you'll be wrong. Because statistics isn't hard man.
Anonymous
>>17983740 Amazing. Take it in, you've realized just how simple the problem and how sound the answer really is.
Anonymous
>>17983969 # of heads flips / total flips
9 / 10
Guys! The chance of flipping heads is 90%! It's just that simple!
Anonymous
>>17984031 Again
>Bayesian statistics Anonymous
>>17983917 I would by making you learn basic statistics, and then teach you how to use spread sheets in Excel and how to input formulas. Done.
Anonymous
>>17984061 >I'll throw a math term--just the term, nothing else--and pretend that explains everything away. If he doesn't inherently understand it, I get to pretend he's a moron! It feels SO GOOD! If Bayesian Statistics somehow says 9/10 chance is valid, I say Bayesian Statistics is a crock of shit.
Anonymous
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>>17984087 >It's so simple I can't explain it! Anonymous
>>17984031 I apologize, I didn't think you had the capacity to fuck up that bad.
Anonymous
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The 3DS needs t be hacked so arguments like this don't happen
Anonymous
>>17984109 It's not rocket science. I'm pretty sure they used it on the smogon chart, since they already use those techniques toevaluate their ladder results. I'm not going to explain it to you because you would have to have gotten out of highschool for that, but damn, kid, if you don't know shit, stick to the simple truths.
Anonymous
Anonymous
>>17984145 It's literally the same thing as
>>17983740 , which somebody (not you, I'm sure) said was good.
Anonymous
>>17984109 >Inb4 hurrdurr I was only pretending to be retarded Do you want me to teach you addition too? Lets start with this
>>17983251 Face it, you know nothing about statistics and can't understand any of the numbers/equations on the smogon spreadsheet.
Anonymous
>>17984175 >"It's not rocket science" >I won't explain it, I'll just keep saying "it's not hard" >hurr you're in highscool you're such a kid Okay, now I'll take you seriously.
Anonymous
>>17984252 I understand that they totaled the # of shinies and divided it by the # of eggs, and derived 1:456 from it. Is there somehow more to it than that?
Anonymous
>>17984252 He's already admitted to being in high school and yet, somehow, he has enough control of this subject to deny a bunch of turbonerds who deal with crazy statistics just to determine tiers.
Then he acts as if he should be taken seriously.
Anonymous
>>17984309 >He's already admitted to being in high school No, I haven't. Someone repeatedly saying "hah, you must be in high school" is not the same as "Hi, I'm in high school."
Anonymous
>>17984255 We don't need to explain it. Are you going to argue that despite there being only 2 sides of a coin, that the probability of it landing heads 50% is wrong? And you need math or an explanation to prove that its true? This is embarrassing
>>17984224 We've been talking about statistics and sample size this entire thread and you still haven't grasped the faintest idea of what statistics is all about?
.
Anonymous
>>17984367 >Are you going to argue that despite there being only 2 sides of a coin, that the probability of it landing heads 50% is wrong? Wow. No. I've used that several times, to refute that "# of shinies/# of eggs" doesn't demonstrate the actual rate.
In addition, I've asserted that the sample size is too small.
Anonymous
>>17984294 No, thats all you needed to know. It really is that simple. Further knowledge in statistics explains WHY thats all you need to know and will also explain why the amount of eggs they needed is sufficient for the experiment.
Anonymous
>>17984460 How fortunate that the number of samples we have NOW, about half of the goal, is sufficient!
Anonymous
>>17984417 And this
>>17983075 explains why 10,000 is too big.
You can't use the coin flip example because you're using it incorrectly. Again, you wouldn't know this because you don't know statistics.
Anonymous
>>17984621 You've sufficiently convinced me that you a statistics wizard, or I'm just a moron. Either one, if it's enough to get you to stop with the whole "It's a statistics thing... you wouldn't understand" schtick.
So you sound pretty confident in this whole thing. Like, really confident. So, let's the game is decoded and it turns out that the shiny rate is still, in fact, 1/8192. Or 1/4096, even. The 1/4XX rate isn't even close. What statistician loophole are you going to whip out to assert you were still right all along, and we were just too stupid to understand?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17984504 Egg rates for 100 eggs, 200 eggs, 300 eggs 500 eggs, 1000 eggs and current egg total came with a probability and also a number for %error on the spread sheet. All of which hovered at 1/456, the probability that matched all the groups.
You need to step up your game son.
Anonymous
>>17984652 What?
>You seem to be right, but assume you are wrong, how do you explain it? Anonymous
>>17984704 So, you're saying then that you're NOT wrong? This IS, with some wiggle room for error, the rate? Undoubtedly? Absolutely? No way it could possibly be anything else?
Anonymous
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>>17984734 Yes. That's the whole point of the thread, Variance for this thing is about 1/40000, accrding to my hastily written simulation, so, yes, that's the rate.
Anonymous
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>>17978280 I'm glad I'm not the only one who realized this.
Anonymous
>>17984652 >So, let's the game is decoded and it turns out that the shiny rate is still, in fact, 1/8192. Or 1/4096, even. The 1/4XX rate isn't even close. What statistician loophole are you going to whip out to assert you were still right all along, and we were just too stupid to understand? In the long shot that it does show up, I'd admit I was wrong. But because I know how math works I'm 99% confident that I'm right. 1% because you know, statistics.
>enough to get you to stop with the whole "It's a statistics thing... you wouldn't understand" schtick. That argument doesn't work because no one has impeded on your ability to learn about what statistics is/what it does/what it's used for. But for the record the closest analogy I could come up with for your argument this entire thread is
>Tell me why 1+1=2. Explain to me why addition works. 1+1 won't = 2 all the time unless we observe abstracts from a higher dimension because thats the only way for us to know. All it would have taken was 5 minutes on a wikipedia article.
Anonymous
>>17975802 >>Make Wonder Trade better place by releasing shitmons you get from there and only send Pokemon with good IVs (or HA) or Bank exclusives. I like you
Anonymous
>>17984880 I find it funny there was no response to this:
>>17984209 He kept saying hey, explain why it works. That article even has a nice, really stupid example for him.
Anonymous
>>17984652 >I'm just a moron. None of us are statistics wizards, we just passed high school math.
>and we were just too stupid to understand? Just you my friend. WE spend the entire thread trying to explain why the rate was sound but YOU had to keep shitting it up with your ignorance.
And stop playing the victim. No one is witch hunting you because of your inferiority complex. Just you.
Anonymous
>>17985010 >we just passed high school math I've got a Ph.D. Not shitting you. In physics. And this kid kept repeating all this stupid. I'm brainhurt.
Anonymous
>>17984948 I don't have time to read a long winding article just to match wits with some anons. If there's a nice, really stupid example for me, just copy/paste it for me--I'm too stupid to do it myself.
I find it funny that there was no response to this:
>>17984351 For a guy who's not only convinced of his intellectual superiority but convinced of my deficiency, he's yet to own up to what's a pretty fucking simple mistake.
>>17984880 That's a pretty poor analogy because we both know that, even if it's "simple," a statistical calculation that apparently draws on "degrees of belief" is a bit more complex than "1+1=2." Maybe I'm just a mongoloid, but I fail to see how heads/tails chances are somehow less appropriate a comparison than an addition fact.
Anonymous
>>17985043 >anyone who doesn't understand everything I do is a "kid" For an intelligent person, that's a silly thing to assert. Especially constantly.
>>17985010 I didn't take statistics in high school. I took Pre-Calc instead.
And yes, I did poorly. > No one is witch hunting you because of your inferiority complex. One or several anons have been constantly chiding with "didn't pass high school," "just a dumb kid," etc... you even did you in the sentence immediately preceding the one I just quoted.
Anonymous
>>17985156 >anyone who doesn't understand everything I do is a "kid" Not everyone. Just the really stupid ones. And only because it's better to believe you are a kid than believing you are this stupid. Sorry if you are an independent adult, I'm really, really sorry about that.
Anonymous
>>17985227 Yes, pity me, for my ignorance of Bayesian Statistics has absolutely crippled me in this thread, and at absolutely no other point in my life.
Anonymous
>>17985084 >a statistical calculation that apparently draws on "degrees of belief" is a bit more complex >But uses coin flip example >And completely disregards importance of sample size >Still wants to use coin flip example >Shown explicitly that the sample size is more than enough to conclude with a 1% degree of error >Its not that simple as dividing Shiny/Eggs I give up man. Good luck guys.
Anonymous
>>17985296 Yes, I'm talking about not knowing Bayesian staistics. Not just your overall stupidity when dealing with people or stupid beliefs in the world. Not at all. Have a nice life.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17985299 Would a sample size of ten billion coin flips suffice?
If so, does nine billion heads flips prove anything?
If the sample size is enough, why keep going? Why not stop the research right now?
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17985349 >Not just your overall stupidity when dealing with people or stupid beliefs in the world. You couldn't possibly glean "overall stupidity" OR "stupid beliefs in the world" based on discussion of a single topic.
Anonymous
Well this tip thread certainly went to shit
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17985043 I just don't understand man. We keep explaining to him but he just won't get it bro.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17984937 I'm not OP but I've been acting as a filter since day 1
I'll trade a box of 3-5IV rejects, then sift through what's shit and what isn't
Keep some for GTS fodder, trade others if it's good enough
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17985408 Shiny rate with the charm is 1/456. Thats all you need to know because math will never let you down.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17978230 I use a thin guitar pick. Doesn't pop it out of place and slides in easily.
Anonymous
>>17978230 >not using a guitar capo get out.
Anonymous
Can you fight hoards in friend safari?
Anonymous
>>17986947 Nope, you just get HAs sometimes on all the wild pokemon there.
Anonymous
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17987325 Hidden Ability.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17986505 >playing guitar Anonymous
Quoted By:
/r/ing guide on catching legendary birds for my slow ass roomate who just beat the E4
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17976181 >wt at 2 in the morning Which timezone?
Anonymous
>>17976267 1/25 Nature chance > 1/32 chance of Pokemon from 2 6 IV parents having 6 IVs
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17989936 no because the method is only 1/6 to get you iIV to begin with, meaning you have 1/6 * 1/25= 1/150chances to get the nature and iv while 2 6IV pokes is only 1/32.
it's only interesting if you are lucky of just want "6IV pokes" to trade on the internet for people doing a masuda and needing a foreign 6IV poke.
Anonymous
>>17976474 >live in supposed Polar area in Norway >have Continental Vivillons What?
Also, I don't know how widespread it is, but there are these rocks in Victory Road that are behind where you fight and if you use surf it'll break and you find a Damp Rock. Does anyone know if there are more like these?
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
>>17991409 >there are these rocks in Victory Road that are behind where you fight and if you use surf it'll break and you find a Damp Rock. Does anyone know if there are more like these? What do you mean? Can you use MS Paint to point it out?
http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Victory_Road_(Kalos)#Caves Anonymous
>>17991426 he probably means item found in the wild with surf or blizzard.
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
>>17991437 I still don't understand. What do you find with Blizzard?
Although I am thinking now that he could be referring to the breakable walls, but you use Rock Smash for those.
Anonymous
▲ !ZEN/cgElFM
Quoted By:
>>17991462 Oh yeah, I remember hearing about that. Makes sense.
I wonder if I ever saw any but didn't notice, I didn't even think about it throughout the game.
Anonymous
>>17991426 Sorry, I went away.
It's during fights. You see these random rocks behind you and you use surf and possibly something else as well, and the rocks fall down.
Anonymous
Quoted By:
>>17991833 Aaaand I didn't notice the other posts.
Oh well.
