/vp/ - Pokémon » Thread #17999780

[36 / 7 / ?]

2MiB, 3264x2448, image.jpg

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:35:18 No.17999780 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>17999804 >>18001263

Does it affect MM or not?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:35:47 No.17999790 Report

Quoted By:

Yes

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:36:24 No.17999804 Report

Quoted By: >>17999848

>>17999780
yes but nobody really know by how. some think it's as good as 1/450, other more like 1/1000 like in B2/W2

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:36:29 No.17999805 Report

Quoted By: >>17999851

Combined with MM, it brings your chances of hatching a Shiny down to about 1/400 according to nerds.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:36:34 No.17999807 Report

Quoted By:

it did in gen 5, so I'm sure it still does.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:36:42 No.17999811 Report

Quoted By:

no, not at all. it never has. but people with it likes to think it does

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:36:46 No.17999815 Report

Quoted By:

Probably.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:37:25 No.17999827 Report

Quoted By: >>18000284

>Caught 8 shinies
>Hatched none

Jazmine 1736-1190-5089

Jazmine 1736-1190-5089 Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:38:21 No.17999848 Report

Quoted By: >>18000089

>>17999804
If it's 1/450 I'm owed a couple shinies

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:38:28 No.17999851 Report

Quoted By:

>>17999805
And lesser nerds who have yet to get the shiny charm are showing around 1/800 without it.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:39:29 No.17999872 Report

Quoted By: >>17999905

so do you need to see or capture them all to get it

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:41:12 No.17999905 Report

Quoted By: >>17999936

>>17999872
Capture. You get that egg hatching thing for seeing them all, I think.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO ShinyPawniard.png, 23KiB, 169x243

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:41:26 No.17999910 Report

Quoted By: >>18000016

Some data at Smogon seems to show that it does. I got a shiny Pawniard a few days ago. It was like Egg 100 something out of 150.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:42:42 No.17999936 Report

Quoted By: >>17999960

>>17999905
you get that for the national dex

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:43:45 No.17999960 Report

Quoted By: >>17999993

>>17999936
regional i mean

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:45:01 No.17999993 Report

Quoted By:

>>17999960
Oh really? My bad

Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet)

Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet) Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:45:47 No.18000016 Report

Quoted By: >>18000144

>>17999910
those data arent reliable until they get 10K eggs per people at the very least. 3DS random is BULLSHIT.
My current experience of safari shiny ratio was 1/400 for the first 2500 encounter but out of nowhere, I'm having a good old 1500+ encounter serie with 0 shiny. The eggs are the same. Sure those guys may have had extreme luck for their wirft 4000 eggs, nothing say the next 4000 will not be 100% not shiny.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:48:28 No.18000089 Report

Quoted By: >>18000232

>>17999848
That is not how statistics work.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1392122926559.png, 172KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:51:28 No.18000144 Report

Quoted By: >>18000211

>>18000016
>Over 110k eggs recorded on smogon
>It's not good enough.

Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet)

Sari IGN Michelle 1349-5683-2035(fly spearow, swanna, rufflet) Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:55:24 No.18000211 Report

Quoted By: >>18000297 >>18000439

>>18000144
it's not. The problem is that without knowing the actual chances, less than several million eggs will lead to nothing. Their data laso have people with extremely low eggs but none of the recuring unlucky guys you get in shiny hunte threads with 3000+ eggs without a shiny.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:56:10 No.18000216 Report

Quoted By: >>18000301

Why can't one of us just... ask Nintendo or something? Or Masuda on twitter? I'm sure if people ask enough, they'll eventually tell us.

Anyone have any moonrune friends that can confirm this within their community? I know that the description for the Shiny Charm in the Japanese version is exactly the same as Gen V, and it was just changed in the English version slightly, which has got us all confused.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:57:07 No.18000232 Report

Quoted By:

>>18000089
Well statistics need to verify themselves at some point. Especially in computer programming.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 00:59:46 No.18000284 Report

Quoted By:

>>17999827
it's funny cause outside of 3 friend safari shinies, all of the other six came from eggs, only two of em intentionally.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO image.jpg, 23KiB, 425x320

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:00:02 No.18000297 Report

Quoted By: >>18000509

>>18000211
To get a fair estimate you just need a sample large enough to establish a certain confidence interval. Smogon has, or is well on its way to reaching that number. As of right now we don't know the exact number, and we never will as probability will never reach 100%, only approach it, unless somebody cracks the DS code. Smogon's estimates right now are the most reliable thing we have, and it's fair to assume that 110k eggs gives us a rough estimate of the eventual shiny odds.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:00:14 No.18000301 Report

Quoted By:

>>18000216
>I'm sure if people ask enough, they'll eventually tell us.

why? no, their code is their propriety and talking about the internal mechanics of the game is never good on a legal point, it could be considered like making their program public.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO lysandre's bitchfit.gif, 3MiB, 577x317

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:02:36 No.18000352 Report

Quoted By: >>18000448

>tfw still 50 off the 705 required

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO Internet Lies.jpg, 44KiB, 453x576

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:08:12 No.18000439 Report

Quoted By:

>>18000211
No one would ever exaggerate the number of something that is impossible to be checked so that their peers would think highly of them on the internet, that would be dishonest.

That said, sure you could hatch a ton of eggs and not get a shiny, but 110K would pretty good start for an educated guess at the shiny chances.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:08:30 No.18000448 Report

Quoted By: >>18000482

>>18000352
Don't you mean 706?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:11:12 No.18000482 Report

Quoted By: >>18000548

>>18000448
Wait I thought there were 13 not counted?

Mew,
Celebi,
Jirachi, Deoxys
Manaphy, Phione, Shaymin, Darkrai, Arceus
Victini, Keldeo, Meolotta, Genesect

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:12:34 No.18000509 Report

Quoted By: >>18000604

>>18000297
problem : the "large enough" is defined by the probability itself. With no knowledge of said probability peforehand you must aim for the largest possible one. their 200K eggs aren't even half what you need to validate a 1/400 chance at all. Learn practical maths.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:15:10 No.18000548 Report

Quoted By: >>18000558

>>18000482
Not sure whether or not phione counted, but that's probably what I took into account

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:16:14 No.18000558 Report

Quoted By:

>>18000548
thought it was all event pokemon + Phione

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO image.jpg, 16KiB, 240x202

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:20:17 No.18000604 Report

Quoted By: >>18000680

>>18000509
You don't know that, mr. Practical, cause the largest possible sample we can possibly use is Smogon right now and, more importantly, it's still a work in progress. If you could read worth shit you'd have seen I said we have a rough estimate of what the exact probability will turn out to be eventually. Furthermore, for all and any practical purposes, rough estimates are enough because it's fucking Pokémon we're dealing with.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 01:25:09 No.18000680 Report

Quoted By:

>>18000604
You just changed the goalpost, since people are stating it's 1/450 in this thread. But their samples are not really good at the moment. Too much smartasses with less than 200 eggs bragging about a good luck, not enough serious people with 4000+ eggs aiming for 10K

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 13 Feb 2014 02:01:21 No.18001263 Report

Quoted By: >>18002068

>>17999780
Well, it took me about 10 boxes to MM a shiny Swinub with it, compared to over 100 for a Binacle without. I'd say it does.

IGN proto 2079-7258-2131

IGN proto 2079-7258-2131 Thu 13 Feb 2014 02:45:56 No.18002068 Report

Quoted By:

>>18001263
mah nigga

Capcode	All Only User Posts Only Verified Posts Only Moderator Posts Only Manager Posts Only Admin Posts Only Developer Posts Only Founder Posts
Show Posts	All Only With Images Only Without Images Only Spoiler Images Only Non-Spoiler Images
Deleted Posts	All Only Deleted Posts Only Non-Deleted Posts
Ghost Posts	All Only Ghost Posts Only Non-Ghost Posts
Post Type	All Only Sticky Threads Only Opening Posts Only Reply Posts
Results	All Grouped By Threads
Order	Latest Posts First Oldest Posts First

On these archives

Your latest searches