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Some people say it's 1/1,200 via masuda method, others say it's 1/500 with the shiny charm, some say the shiny charm doesn't stack
Without the shiny charm, I hatched a shiny swirlix in 8 eggs. I hatched shiny klefki in very few eggs too.
When I got the shiny charm, I hatched about 10-12 shinies, only 1 did not hatch in around 100 eggs or less, it took about 500.
For the last 4 days I've been trying to get a shiny froakie and came close to 2,000 eggs with nothing before calling it quits, using both masuda method and I had the shiny charm.
I really don't know bruh. The shiny rate is definitely higher this game, but there is no guarantee how long it'll take. I'd say though you'll probably get it pretty quickly, most people seem to.
