/vp/ - Pokémon » Thread #19039963

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97KiB, 640x480, 20140501_203231.jpg

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:40:28 No.19039963 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>19039978 >>19040014 >>19040017 >>19040107

Ok, so I just found two shinies in one horde. Sorry for the poor quality, my phone has a shitty camera. I knew it was possible to get shinies in hordes, but I wasn't expecting two. Has this happened to anyone else? should I be excited?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:42:04 No.19039978 Report

Quoted By: >>19039988

>>19039963
Excited because you just can catch one of them?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:42:58 No.19039988 Report

Quoted By:

>>19039978
Yeah, I just realized that...

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:43:30 No.19039993 Report

Quoted By: >>19040007

A mixture of both excitement at finding a shiny and annoyance at the fact you can't catch both of them

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:43:49 No.19039998 Report

Quoted By:

The one you don't catch probably has perfect stats.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:44:43 No.19040007 Report

Quoted By:

>>19039993
sounds about right. Oh god, which one do I go for?!

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:45:40 No.19040014 Report

Quoted By: >>19040045

>>19039963
Take a few more pictures, let the moment sink in a bit.
Pink Mareep is the mascot of /shw/ because of the same reason (someone found 2 in one horde)
I'd feel happy about it.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO ShinyMareep15.jpg, 2MiB, 3216x2104

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:45:40 No.19040017 Report

Quoted By: >>19040195

>>19039963
Oh hey that reminds me of this...

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:48:38 No.19040045 Report

Quoted By: >>19040101 >>19040195

>>19040014
Oh right, I didn't know that. So it's nothing new, oh well.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 20140501_204841.jpg, 150KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:51:11 No.19040063 Report

Quoted By: >>19040095 >>19040100 >>19040107

Alright, well, it's only the two shinies now. Which one should i go for?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:53:41 No.19040095 Report

Quoted By: >>19040114

>>19040063
Take the one on the left.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:54:34 No.19040100 Report

Quoted By: >>19040114

>>19040063
the right one :3

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:54:42 No.19040101 Report

Quoted By: >>19040114

>>19040045
Might not be something new, but it's still SUPER rare!

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:55:36 No.19040107 Report

Quoted By: >>19040137

>>19040063
>>19039963
WHY DIDN'T YOU TAKE MORE PICTURES OP
DAMMIT
PICTURES OP, PICTURES
THIS IS GOLDEN MEMORIES
FUCK

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:56:28 No.19040114 Report

Quoted By: >>19040140

>>19040100
>>19040095
Well, I've taken the one on the left.
>>19040101
All I can say is im gunna show this to everyone I know.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 20140501_205844.jpg, 105KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:58:50 No.19040137 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040107
oops...

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1363118680752.png, 123KiB, 500x500

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 19:58:55 No.19040140 Report

Quoted By: >>19040154 >>19040167 >>19040697

>>19040114
How did it feel when you saw two of them shine at the beginning?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:01:03 No.19040154 Report

Quoted By: >>19040171 >>19040434 >>19040518

>>19040140
>you'll never get a blowjob from Homika

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 20140501_205846.jpg, 104KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:02:00 No.19040167 Report

Quoted By: >>19040180 >>19040213

>>19040140
I was really fucking excited naturally. But at the same time I was quite annoyed, firstly because i could only catch one of them secondly because I was trying to EV train my porygon in Sp.A, so this means I'm gunna have to find another reset bag. But yea know, two shinies!

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:02:25 No.19040171 Report

Quoted By: >>19040518

>>19040154
>you'll never lick Homika's sweaty feet

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:03:27 No.19040180 Report

Quoted By: >>19040190

>>19040167
>not using EVs berries

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:04:29 No.19040190 Report

Quoted By: >>19040226

>>19040180
Don't have any yet because I'm lazy. I'll get round to it though.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:05:12 No.19040195 Report

Quoted By: >>19040219 >>19040660

>>19040045
It's extremely rare. I've been in every single Shiny Hunt Weekend thread ever, and this is the third time its ever happened.

First time was around opening weekend for X/Y with the Mareeps pictured here; >>19040017 which is part of the reason /shw/ uses it as a mascot in their threads.

Second time wasn't for like another 4 months, but with Scraggy, and now your ones.

There's probably only a dozen or so people in the world who will ever have this happen to then, so yeah, you should be feeling pretty damn happy.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:06:47 No.19040213 Report

Quoted By: >>19040265

>>19040167
show us its stats, nature and ability

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:07:05 No.19040219 Report

Quoted By: >>19040660

>>19040195
Holy shit. I do now. I just don't think the reality has quite sunk in yet.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:07:32 No.19040226 Report

Quoted By: >>19040279

>>19040190
it's so much more time saving than having to do a reset bag and start over from scratch.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO stats and shit.jpg, 116KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:10:13 No.19040265 Report

Quoted By: >>19040283 >>19040801 >>19041181

>>19040213
There you go. It has a hasty nature. (It's not very clear from the picture)

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:11:47 No.19040279 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040226
Yeah I suppose you're right.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:12:14 No.19040283 Report

Quoted By: >>19040289 >>19040326

>>19040265
What are its ivs?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:13:08 No.19040289 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040283
Just checking now.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1398024471826.jpg, 11KiB, 251x242

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:16:07 No.19040309 Report

Quoted By:

> not having swift swim

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:17:45 No.19040326 Report

Quoted By: >>19040339 >>19041094

>>19040283
Alright, it has 'decent' defense IV's, and that's it really.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:19:45 No.19040339 Report

Quoted By: >>19040360

>>19040326
Damn, but either way, a shiny's a shiny!

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:22:19 No.19040360 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040339
Yep! Shame we'll never know what the other one was like...

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:24:04 No.19040372 Report

Quoted By: >>19040675

They need to introduce a "Cluster Ball" which will potentially catch everything on screen in Horde/Double Pokémon encounters.

That way it makes catching Pokémon with HA/Correct Nature, or catching two Horde Shinies easier/possible.

It'd also encourage Wonder Trading I guess.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1398802836477.gif, 1000KiB, 480x270

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:32:04 No.19040434 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040154

>Actually using Roxie's Japanese name

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO Roxie (30).jpg, 931KiB, 3507x2480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 20:43:25 No.19040518 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040171
>>19040154
>Post about Roxie's feet is deleted
>Post about getting a blowjob isn't
weird

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:06:03 No.19040660 Report

Quoted By: >>19040698 >>19040904 >>19040991

>>19040195
>>19040219
Chances of two shinies in one horde:
1 in 4096*4096 = 16,777,216

Basically similar odds to winning a lottery. Pretty special.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:07:35 No.19040675 Report

Quoted By: >>19040721

>>19040372
They just need to make is so you can select a target for Pokeballs like you can with attacks, I honestly can't see any fucking reason why not to do this.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1394232372956.jpg, 27KiB, 640x480

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:10:22 No.19040697 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040140

I remember when I ran into my first ever shiny when I was playing White. It was a Herdier, and I had actually looked away from my DS for a second after I saw I was going into a battle. When I looked back, I saw the end of the shine animation. So glad I did. I wouldn't have noticed otherwise ( never paid much attention to Lillipup's line, not a fan ).

I remember panicking upon realization, then an almost overwhelming rush of happiness and excitement took hold of me. It wasn't the pokemon, it was just my first EVER wild shiny encounter, and I almost missed it. I was grinding, so I hadn't really been paying much attention before then. Catching it was just the sweet, sweet cherry on top.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:10:24 No.19040698 Report

Quoted By: >>19040763 >>19040777 >>19040914

>>19040660
Actually, you know what, I retract that, it's totally wrong because it's not taking into account that there's effectively 5 rolls and you're picking from any. The chances aren't actually that high, anyone who is actually good at mathematics feel free to correct me.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:13:08 No.19040721 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040675
Too much coding effort to have the battle not end after a Pokemon is caught? This IS Game Freak, after all.

Bawby

Bawby Thu 01 May 2014 21:17:54 No.19040763 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040698
This is true for two Shiny encounters in a row. This is pretty close to being right, if not right, because they are directly next to each other, so I would assume that it would be the same rate as two in a row.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:19:47 No.19040777 Report

Quoted By: >>19040914 >>19040947

>>19040698
Let p be the chance a pokèmon is shiny. I'll assume the shininess is rolled for each pokèmon separatedly.

>Chance of not getting any shiny
P1=(1-p)^5
>Chance of getting exactly one shiny
P2=5*p*(1-p)^4
>Chance of getting two or more shinies
It's the opposite of getting exactly 0 or exactly 1, so 1-P1-P2

Feel free to correct me, it's late.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:22:36 No.19040801 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040265
Love the name

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:29:31 No.19040904 Report

Quoted By: >>19040921 >>19040979

>>19040660
10 different combinations in which that could happen, so probablity is:

1 in 1,677,721.6

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1395988000724.jpg, 10KiB, 204x200

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:30:04 No.19040914 Report

Quoted By: >>19040934 >>19040991

>>19040698
>>19040777
It would help a lot if we actually knew the shiny encounter rates for hordes from the game code itself. I remember seeing an image of someone encountering 5 shiny mareeps at once making the rounds on tumblr back when X/Y came out. I guess we'll never know if it's legit since we don't even know if it CAN be legit.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:30:58 No.19040921 Report

Quoted By: >>19041008

>>19040904
you have to multiply for (1-p)^3 to ask for the other 3 not to be shiny

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:31:49 No.19040934 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040914
Well I would assume it was the same as normal, but I guess GF might have thrown a curveball.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:33:06 No.19040947 Report

Quoted By: >>19040991

>>19040777
Can you explain the p? What is the number for that variable which I'm guessing is Pokemon.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:34:44 No.19040979 Report

Quoted By: >>19041008

>>19040904
That's not 100% right, because you have to account for 3, 4, or even 5 shones in one horde
so the probability to meet 2 (or more) shones in a horde is above what you said

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:35:25 No.19040991 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040947
p is the chance for a single pokèmon to be shiny, which I can't be bothered to look up but according to
>>19040660
is 1 in 4096.

Of course
>>19040914
makes a valid point, that's just the chance for single encounters in past games, we don't know whether it's been tweaked and/or hordes work differently (and safari, may I add)

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:36:55 No.19041008 Report

Quoted By: >>19041020 >>19041036

>>19040921
Well, yeh, but that's an almost completely negligible number.

Those 3 not being shiny is a .9992675 modifier.

So rate for EXACTLY 2 goes from:

1 in 1,677,721.6 to 1 in 1,675,264.5

>>19040979
For exactly 2, only those 10 situations can occur.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:38:09 No.19041020 Report

Quoted By: >>19041059

>>19041008
>that's an almost completely negligible number
true that, as are the chances for 3 or more shinies to appear (which you didn't consider), but since we're calculating an almost negligible chance anyway, better be precise

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:39:26 No.19041036 Report

Quoted By: >>19041059

>>19041008
Yes but if you meet 3 wild shiny cubchoos, you've met 2 too.
It's like 6IV Physical attacking pokemon: you don't care about that 31 in SAtk, but it's effectively a 31/31/31/xx/31/31 pokemon. Except better.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:41:32 No.19041059 Report

Quoted By: >>19041086

>>19041020
I already calculated for exactly 2. I don't have a calculator ATM, so I can't do this one properly atm, but:

10/(4096^2)+10(4096^3)+5/(4096^4)+1(4096^5)

>>19041036
EXACTLY 2 (I put that qualifier in there for a reason, mostly because I'm kind of too lazy to go and hand calculate the formula)

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:43:21 No.19041082 Report

Quoted By:

OP you want to tell me you didn't watch which one of the two was the fastest and catch that one?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:43:39 No.19041086 Report

Quoted By: >>19041114

>>19041059
it's still missing some 1-p

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:44:16 No.19041094 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040326
The other one has a good nature and perfect IVs. How does that make you feel?

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:45:20 No.19041114 Report

Quoted By: >>19041124

>>19041086
Yeh, I noticed that, correcting for error now.

10*(4095^3)/(4096^2)+10*(4095^2)/(4096^3)+(5*4095)/(4096^5)+1(4096^5)

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:46:24 No.19041124 Report

Quoted By: >>19041153

>>19041114
I'm sorry to be that guy, but all the denominators should be 4096^5 if I'm not mistaken

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:48:24 No.19041153 Report

Quoted By: >>19041167 >>19041183

>>19041124
No, you're right, I'm trying to hot fix this too fast, I also noticed I failed to properly put the division sign on the last coupling.

This is why stats classes let you use calcs

10*(4095^3)/(4096^5)+10*(4095^2)/(4096^5)+(5*4095)/(4096^5)+1/(4096^5)

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:49:46 No.19041167 Report

Quoted By: >>19041183

>>19041153
Should be fine now. So you study stats, uh? I study math, hence the "let p be the probability", I haven't written a 4-digit number in ages.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:51:27 No.19041181 Report

Quoted By:

>>19040265
>Ultra Ball
Into the trash.

Anonymous

Anonymous Thu 01 May 2014 21:51:33 No.19041183 Report

Quoted By:

>>19041153
>10*(4095^3)/(4096^5)+10*(4095^2)/(4096^5)+(5*4095)/(4096^5)+1/(4096^5)

So running it through, probability of 2 OR MORE shinies is:

1 in 1678541.04932

>>19041167
I've taken stats before, but that was like 2-3 years ago; and I forced myself to learn a lot of the full work paths for stats, but I buried that shit when I switched over to Behavioral Statistics.

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