>>21495776I can give you a hand with that.
Getting a timid one has 1/24 odds, which you multiply by the odds of getting 31 in Spe and SpA, which works out to around 1/32^2.
SO, your odds of getting this fat bastard are 1/24576
You could Masuda an pentaperfect with the right stats a few times over before you soft-reset a mediocre one. My advice: wait a few days. I'm doing a giveaway of a whole boatload of shiny Perish Song Gastlies and shiny Sludge Wave Gengars on the 30th and 31st. And also maybe on the next days in case someone missed it.