/vp/ - Pokémon » Thread #25181299

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Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:02:10 No.25181299 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>25181330 >>25181356 >>25181458 >>25181487 >>25181678 >>25181832 >>25184585 >>25186484 >>25189761 >>25190338 >>25194711

Is the shiny encounter rate in friend safari really 1 in ~500? Decided to go shiny hunting for the first time today and didn't get shit after ~2k encounters.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:05:14 No.25181330 Report

Quoted By: >>25181368

>>25181299
Might just be bad luck, what pokemon are you looking for? I usually find one the next day if a few hours yeilds nothing.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:08:17 No.25181356 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299
>Is the shiny encounter rate in friend safari really 1 in ~500?
Yes.

>Decided to go shiny hunting for the first time today and didn't get shit after ~2k encounters.
That's not surprising.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:09:38 No.25181368 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181330
Gabite or Dragonair, I'd be happy with either one. I guess I'll just continue tomorrow then. Do I benefit in any way from saving the game after all these encounters? Like is there a mechanic that makes it slightly more likely to get a shiny after not getting one for an x amount of encounters?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:24:17 No.25181458 Report

Quoted By: >>25181543 >>25181840

>>25181299
1 in 500 doesn't mean you're guaranteed to find a shiny after 500 encounters, that's not how probabilities work.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:28:26 No.25181487 Report

Quoted By: >>25181543 >>25181561

>>25181299
The DexNav also boosts the Shiny rate if you chain long enough for a Pokemon. I believed it but I more than believe it now since yesterday I encountered (and caught) 2 Shiny Aron in a row.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:37:05 No.25181543 Report

Quoted By: >>25181561 >>25181765

>>25181458
I know that senpai.

>>25181487
Not sure what DexNav is but I'll look into it, thanks man.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:39:19 No.25181561 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181487
OP is in the Friend Safari. There's obviously no DexNav.

>>25181543
>Not sure what DexNav is but I'll look into it,
It's a feature in ORAS.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO image.jpg, 99KiB, 800x599

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 21:57:00 No.25181678 Report

Quoted By: >>25181887

>>25181299
>gambler's fallacy

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:08:49 No.25181765 Report

Quoted By: >>25182337

>>25181543
>I know senpai
then why are you surprised/complaining?

pleb

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:17:10 No.25181832 Report

Quoted By: >>25181856

>>25181299
So now we change the article to say 1 in 2000?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:18:31 No.25181840 Report

Quoted By: >>25181856

>>25181458
>1 in 500 doesn't mean you're guaranteed to find a shiny after 500 encounters
Then why does it seem to be stated as fact

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:21:04 No.25181856 Report

Quoted By: >>25181899 >>25194191

>>25181832
>>25181840
It should at least mean you'll definitely get one after 1000

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:25:41 No.25181887 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181678
not actually gambler's fallacy
the fallacy would be that you're guaranteed to get it in 500, because after one fail that's one outcome out of the way and you only have 499 left
however if none of the events have happened yet, the probability of finding one within 2k encounters is much higher than just 1/500 but also much lower than 2000/500

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 22:27:24 No.25181899 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181856

That's mathematically false.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 23:28:57 No.25182337 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181765
Because it would be very likely to get a shiny by then and I was wondering if I was on the unlucky side or the info I had on the encounter rate was false. How dense are you exactly?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 08 Feb 2016 23:33:43 No.25182370 Report

Quoted By: >>25184567 >>25184572

ITT no one understands how basic probabilities work.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:34:43 No.25184567 Report

Quoted By: >>25186524 >>25190462

>>25182370
Chance of shiny pokemon on friend safari: Apparently 1 in 500

Chance of not encountering any shinies after exactly 2000 encounters: 1/4

Keep at it. It's like rolling a huge die. Eventually it'll come up with the side you want.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:35:31 No.25184572 Report

Quoted By:

>>25182370
If it was really basic, it would be easier to understand

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:36:13 No.25184577 Report

Quoted By: >>25184594 >>25184663

Ive been playing pokemon since Yellow launched, and I've never seen a wild shiny.

Ive never gone hunting, or given a shit though.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:37:17 No.25184585 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299
I heard it differs between each friend safari. I got like three there within a day while others safaris never got me anything.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:38:52 No.25184594 Report

Quoted By: >>25184663

>>25184577
Same position from front to end. Tons of playthroughs and 0 shiny encounters

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 04:50:05 No.25184663 Report

Quoted By:

>>25184577
>>25184594

There are worse things than never having seen a shiny. Like, say, finally seeing one after years and years, but it happens to be in the Safari Zone and it runs on the first turn.

Several years and multiple caught shinies later, I'm still mad about that.

'YOU CAN'T STUMP THE TRUMP' - ANON SHITPOSTING OUTSIDE OF HIS CONTAINMENT BOARD

'YOU CAN'T STUMP THE TRUMP' - ANON SHITPOSTING OUTSIDE OF HIS CONTAINMENT BOARD Tue 09 Feb 2016 13:13:08 No.25186484 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299
I wonder what the pseudorandom sweet spot actually is for shinies. They have switched to pseudo random by now right, what with fishing,dexnav/radar..?

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 13:27:53 No.25186524 Report

Quoted By: >>25186533

>>25184567
Pretty sure your math is wrong desu.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 13:30:44 No.25186533 Report

Quoted By:

>>25186524
It is, after 2k encounters, the probability of running into at least one shiny is at ~98%.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 15:25:00 No.25186891 Report

Quoted By: >>25187424

Probability of finding a shiny within 500 attempts = 63.25%.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 16:23:37 No.25187124 Report

Quoted By:

Is there a difference wether you have the 'unlocked' friend Safari or not?

When I say unlocked, I mean;
-Friend who beat the elite four,
-All three pokemon visible and hidden abilities appearing.

I know hidden abilities won't show up if your friend hasn't been online at the same time as you and registered in your game as postE4.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 17:32:41 No.25187424 Report

Quoted By: >>25189780

>>25186891
So 2000 was four coin flips, but why does that percentage come from .00175

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 23:38:45 No.25189761 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299
It is. I found a Klekfi at first try.

Anonymous

Anonymous Tue 09 Feb 2016 23:41:55 No.25189780 Report

Quoted By:

>>25187424
I have no idea what you're talking about, but the probability of finding at least one shiny after 2000 attempts is 98.18%.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 01:07:45 No.25190338 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299

You are just hilariously unlucky.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 01:23:42 No.25190462 Report

Quoted By:

>>25184567
You're full of shit bro, the probability of not finding a shiny after 200 attempts is (499/500)^2000 which is roughly 2 percent. Where the hell do you get the 25 percent?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 02:20:12 No.25190798 Report

Quoted By: >>25193874

>been playing Pokemon for about 15 years
>not a single shiny found in the wild

The chance of this happening is less than 1%, I must be cursed.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 12:45:57 No.25193874 Report

Quoted By:

>>25190798

I found 10 just last game, without trying I traded them for Heracrosses, I like Heracross

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:30:04 No.25194191 Report

Quoted By: >>25194301 >>25194520

>>25181856

No, imagine you had a bag filled with 499 red balls and 1 blue ball. You have to pull out the blue ball, but every time you pull out a red you have to put it back.

The chance of pulling out the blue ball is 1 in 500 but that doesn't mean you're going to get it after 500 attempts.

It could take well over 1000 to pull out the blue ball easily.

This is like middle school maths m8.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:32:03 No.25194224 Report

Quoted By:

I have never found a shiny and I've been playing since gen 1.

I've never looked for one though either. I do have a bajillion shines on my white game from when /vp/ used to have distribution threads. Whatever happened to those?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:38:07 No.25194301 Report

Quoted By: >>25194636 >>25195051

>>25194191
>you had to put it back
Wow, when is that ever implied?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:43:32 No.25194380 Report

Quoted By:

Why would you say one in five hundred without ever stipulating that you are not actually removing one from five hundred and this statement is in fact useless?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:45:36 No.25194409 Report

Quoted By: >>25195061

Why tell me about a value I am not actually depleting? I wish we actually used logic and reason

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 13:54:10 No.25194520 Report

Quoted By:

>>25194191
Blame teachers not knowing how to explain that

:^)

:^) Wed 10 Feb 2016 14:03:30 No.25194636 Report

Quoted By: >>25195290

>>25194301
In the probability. It doesn't say the encounter rate is 1 in 500 only for your first encounter and then goes down to 1 in 499 the next encounter and so on now does it. When you flip a coin it's 50-50 and you have a 1 in 2 chance to get heads but that doesn't mean if you get tails the first coin toss that the probability next time changes to not being 1 in 2

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 14:09:56 No.25194711 Report

Quoted By:

>>25181299
it is, I did a test for months when XY was a thing.
that said it's likely you didn't do 2K encounters, that's several hours worth of encounter, the game is slwoer than you think.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 14:12:23 No.25194736 Report

Quoted By:

if you just encounter/flee you get a shiny every 3 hours roughly. Even if math states that you could spent 5 hours with nothing, the game random is pretty shitty so overall it's accurately predictable, the error margin is low.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 14:46:47 No.25195051 Report

Quoted By: >>25195290

>>25194301

It's 1 in 500 for EVERY encounter you mong,

There isn't an internal counter keeping track of how many shinyless encounters you've had. If there was shinies would be inevitible for everyone.

Seriously probability is stuff you learn when you're like 12. I am horrible at maths and even I understand probability.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 14:47:48 No.25195061 Report

Quoted By: >>25195307

>>25194409

We are using logic you are just applying your own incorrect logic.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:11:05 No.25195290 Report

Quoted By: >>25195316

>>25194636
>>25195051
So what is the difference between 500 and two million probability?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:13:18 No.25195307 Report

Quoted By:

>>25195061
So how did you determine that this is the encounter rate in the first place if the power of deduction is useless?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:13:53 No.25195316 Report

Quoted By: >>25195323 >>25195340 >>25195376

>>25195290
the results after 10 000 000 tries. if you don't roll enough, there's no visible diference between 1/2 and 1/1000000000000000.

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:14:53 No.25195323 Report

Quoted By: >>25195376

>>25195316
That isn't arbitrary?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:16:18 No.25195340 Report

Quoted By: >>25195409

>>25195316
Apparently you can never roll enough

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:20:49 No.25195376 Report

Quoted By:

>>25195316
>>25195323
I mean, how many people got 20000 shinies after 10000000?

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:25:34 No.25195405 Report

Quoted By:

i thought dexnav chaining doesn't actually do anything, just using the dexnav at all is what increases the shiny rate

Anonymous

Anonymous Wed 10 Feb 2016 15:26:03 No.25195409 Report

Quoted By:

>>25195340
you can but it's huge. if something has 50% of happening you still need to roll 100 times to get close to 50 ratio. rule of thumbs, rule 100 time your probability to cover 99% of it to work. 1/500 doesn't mean you'll get 1 in 500 or 2 in 1000, but likely to get 95-105 in 50000 rolls. tou can never reach 100% precision but you get closer as you roll.
that said computer random is flawed since the number of rolls is actually finite, limited by the size of the seed.

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