>>26489043Hey, I remember you. You didn't listen to me last time, but I went out of my way to get a link for you now. I hope this clears up how probability works.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.htmlScroll down to "two or more events".
The odds of each INDIVIDUAL event failing are constant. 70%.
But the odds of MULTIPLE events failing IN A ROW are different.
Multiply 0.7*0.7*0.7. We end up with 0.343. Multiply that by 100 and we get the % chance, 34.3%.
But we want the odds of succeeding. Take 100 and subtract 34.3. We get 65.7%, just like the original post said.
Just to make this clear: the third try is not any more likely to hit(no one is arguing this), but the chances of hitting any one of 3 tries is much higher than in one try only.
I didn't learn very much probability, so if this is wrong, please tell me. But the point still stands that it is more likely to happen with more trials, but each trial has equal chances.
Flipping 100 heads in a row is really unlikely, even though each flip is 1/2.
