/vp/ - Pokémon » Thread #31168088

[15 / 2 / ?]

17KiB, 469x352, 1475391383385.jpg

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:11:12 No.31168088 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>31168156 >>31169154

If I hatch 512 pokemon with shiny charm and masuda method what are the odds that one is a shiny?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:12:59 No.31168124 Report

Quoted By: >>31168156

It doesn't work like that. Each individual one has a 1/512 chance of being shiny

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:15:37 No.31168156 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168088
Pretty much what >>31168124 said.

Odds aren't the same as percentages.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:17:36 No.31168191 Report

Quoted By:

1 in 512

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:19:02 No.31168213 Report

Quoted By: >>31168234 >>31168393 >>31168406

Mathematically speaking, you have roughly a 63% chance for one of those 512 mons to be shiny.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:20:13 No.31168234 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168213
this is correct

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:24:34 No.31168319 Report

Quoted By: >>31168380 >>31168436

Can someone explain the math behind this? I'm rusty with probability.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:28:39 No.31168380 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168319
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:29:33 No.31168393 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168213

roughly 63% chance for one OR MORE to be shiny*

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:30:09 No.31168406 Report

Quoted By: >>31168485

>>31168213
Elaborate.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:31:25 No.31168436 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168319

chance for none to be shiny out of one = 511/512
chance for none to be shiny out of two = (511/512)^2
and so on
chance for none to be shiny out of 512=
(511/512)^512=about 0.37
chance for one or more to be shiny out of 512=1-0.37-0.63

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO binomial probability.png, 16KiB, 493x397

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 05:33:43 No.31168485 Report

Quoted By:

>>31168406

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 06:11:23 No.31169154 Report

Quoted By: >>31169339

>>31168088
1:2
it happens or it doesnt

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 06:21:26 No.31169339 Report

Quoted By:

>>31169154
Actually it is 1:3: normal, shiny or cooked.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 02 Jan 2017 06:26:32 No.31169449 Report

Quoted By:

It only took me <100 eggs with no charms.

Capcode	All Only User Posts Only Verified Posts Only Moderator Posts Only Manager Posts Only Admin Posts Only Developer Posts Only Founder Posts
Show Posts	All Only With Images Only Without Images Only Spoiler Images Only Non-Spoiler Images
Deleted Posts	All Only Deleted Posts Only Non-Deleted Posts
Ghost Posts	All Only Ghost Posts Only Non-Ghost Posts
Post Type	All Only Sticky Threads Only Opening Posts Only Reply Posts
Results	All Grouped By Threads
Order	Latest Posts First Oldest Posts First

On these archives

Your latest searches