>>33623937Let's look at Gen lengths too, when it's from the release of the first new gen game to the release of the next first new gen game:
>Gen 1: 1363 Days (3.7 Years)>Gen 2: 1096 Days (3 Years)>Gen 3: 1407 Days (3.9 Years)>Gen 4: 1451 Days (4 years)>Gen 5: 1120 Days (3.1 Years)>Gen 6: 1133 Days (3.1 Years)>Gen 7: 364+ Days (1 Year)Here we see that you're typically looking at Gen lengths of 3-4 years. Gens 2, 5, and 6 were on the shorter end, with again those first two not popping up on new hardware. 6 was new hardware, and the shortest to be on it, for what people have suspected to be a variety of reasons, mostly revolving around the 20th anniversary. If we take the second gen on the same hardware being closer to three years than four, we're still looking at a 2019 release. A Fall 2018 release would bring Gen 7 to about 2 years, the shortest gen ever by a wide margin and the shortest stay on any hardware since the GBA. Gameboy was about 6.7 years, GBA was about 4.9, and the DS a whopping 7.1. Fall 2018 would end the 3DS at 5.1 years. Lower than usual, but not the lowest.
I personally think 2018 is unlikely. They were quick to announce work on the Switch, but also some what unprecedentedly did so without literally any other things to show for it. On the other hand, they've jumped to hardware in about the same time before (GBA to DS), so it's not entirely unknown in time frame. Mostly all this is just a long winded way to say anyone saying they've got good patterns is bullshitting you, especially with how timeframes and global release dates have changed over the franchise's history.
