>>33797243It's a little complicated to answer that, because a lot of things can happen and it also depends on what item Lele has.
The simplest situation is against Specs Lele.
Firstly, Shadow Claw won't kill even on a critical hit, so you die to Psychic 100% of the time. 0% chance.
Double-Edge will actually kill on a crit. 6.25% chance.
For Iron Head, you have to either get a flinch or a crit (and even with a crit it's not guaranteed, only 75% or 68.8% if Lele invested its leftover 4 EVs in Defense):
70% chance of no flinch, 93.75% chance of no crit and 31.2%/25% chance of the crit not OHKOing all add up to a 20.475%/16.40625% chance of luck not being on your side, or a 79.525%/83.59375% chance of Silvally winning.
Things get hairy if we consider Scarf, because now speed ties, Lele's crit rate and Double-Edge recoil all factor in too.
DE still kills every time it crits. If you're unlucky and it doesn't crit but still rolls the maximum damage roll, DE deals 79 HP of recoil, which is enough that Psychic kills Silvally somewhere around 50% of the time. If DE rolls the minimum damage, that's 67 HP recoil and Lele only has a 25% chance. The mean roll is 219, 73 HP recoil, Lele's mean roll is 253 and Silvally has 332 HP.
This is too much bullshit for me to calculate, and this is without taking into account Psychic crits. Holy fucking shit.
If neither pokemon crit and Silvally survived, it all comes down to the speed tie 50/50.
Shadow Claw is still shit but at least it's easy to calculate. Lele has to not crit turn 1 and Silvally has to win the speed tie turn 2, that's it. 93.75% times 50%, a 46.875% chance in Silvally's favour.
Iron Head is also convoluted bullshit. I'm too tired for any critical thinking anymore, so I just added up the probabilities of all the outcomes. The tl;dr is at the bottom of the image, assuming I did it right.
Steel Silvally is also less bulletproof than you might think, a crit HP Fire from both Scarf/Specs is likely to fuck you up.
