ITT: Thread full of brain dead mongoloids.
Pokemon Go currently has about 30m active players, about 5% of which are monetized. It isn't clear what percentage make up console players vs. mobile-only, but given that attach rates are falling it's likely that more than half represent mobile-only players. Conventional wisdom at the moment suggests that you're never going to be able to convert the mobile users in any meaningful capacity. So getting half that market isn't even on the table. That being said, what could be on the table is the speculative 0-20% of players that are casual console players that overlap in this market.
I estimate that about 20% of casual console gamers in the Go market will convert for LG, about 6m users. While on this side, whether they're still active or quit, I expect the casual console demographic both in and outside of Pokemon fandom to number about 10m-ish. Perhaps with the addition of 1-2m core fans from the evidently emerging subset that has expressed interest in aspects of the games.
So, about 18m in sales, with a possible high watermark of about 20m. Experience makes me think LGPE simply doesn't have enough momentum in 2018 to crush the sales of the first generation, but I fully expect it will show stronger than average sales (whether that's going to be a long-term change or not, who knows) and absolutely outsell the core with relative amounts of ease.
Of course, I don't want it to, because Masuda has already made it pretty clear that there's a chance the core games go away if LGPE is a success and that would alienate me from this franchise for good. But I feel like it's not even really a question at this point that it will and I expect it will do better than any of the recent generations have.
But that's mostly just my opinion
