Alright, after a little digging, I found this online:
>If we get here, the capture fails. Determine the appropriate animation to show:>Multiply the Pokémon's base catch rate by 100 and store the result in a wobble approximation variable W.>Divide W by a number depending on the ball used, rounding the result down:>If it was a Poké Ball, divide by 255.>If it was a Great Ball, divide by 200.>If it was an Ultra or Safari Ball, divide by 150.>Multiply W by the Pokémon's max HP times 255 divided by 8(12 if a Great Ball) or the Pokemon's current HP divided by 4(whichever is greater, round down to 255)>Add a number if the Pokémon has a status affliction:>If the Pokémon is asleep or frozen, add 10 to W.>If the Pokémon is poisoned, burned or paralyzed, add 5 to W.>Show the animation and message corresponding to W:>If W is less than 10, the ball misses ("The ball missed the POKéMON!").So
>>36270200 was onto it, I assume the game just dropped the decimal and it's less than or equal to ten, not just less than ten
