so what do you think are the most likely changes to balance in swordshield?

I'd say:
regenerator nerfed to 20%
stealth rock nerf (maybe deals 25%~20% max or rock typed remove it or doesn't last entire match or it's gonna be layers like spikes)
dream change: bug buff( rock resists bug and bug neutral to steel? would make more sense, steel is powerful ennough and rock needs a buff)