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I'm going to do some math tism and use process of elimination to figure out the actual likely dex size overall when it is ogre.
>as of end of Gen 7, we have over 809 pokemon before Galar happens
>assuming every starter line not from Galar except for Zard line is gone, that is over 60 pokemon gone already from the line-up, taking it down to 749 pokemon
>removing legendaries and mythicals except for Mew (and likely Mewtwo because Game Freak endlessly dick sucks it), that puts it at over 76 approx. if I recall this shit correctly, bringing it down after to 673
>pokemon that Game Freak likely are removing due to controversy, them being too lazy to make their gimmick work here or just being something that few care about (such as Jynx, Porygon line, ect.) would bring it to I'd say around 20 that are doomed to be RIP, bringing it down then to 653
>assuming fossils are all gone too, that means over 20 ancient mons are gone for good too, bringing it down after to 633
>and then assuming 10 more are Thanos'd because Masuda is a dick, that's 70 more removed to finish up, bringing it down to just 563
My money is likely 500-600 at best for old mons surviving, and then the rest as new mons. With the living dex split in half for both games to ensure you give them your shekels to get them all.