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Big Brain SwSh Sales Analysis

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:14:44 No.41059784 View View Reply Original Report

Quoted By: >>41060043 >>41060107 >>41060178 >>41060252 >>41060325 >>41060520 >>41060916 >>41061476 >>41061506 >>41061627

Using linear regression, I predict that SWSH will sell roughly 11m copies

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:19:03 No.41060002 Report

Quoted By: >>41060239 >>41061476

What’s your r squared?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:19:56 No.41060043 Report

Quoted By: >>41060239

>>41059784
What does it look like when you remove Gen 1?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:21:02 No.41060107 Report

Quoted By: >>41060540 >>41061476

>>41059784
And why is this not a square regression?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:22:28 No.41060178 Report

Quoted By: >>41060218 >>41060239 >>41061476

>>41059784
>No R-Squared value
>Aside from gen 4, Pokemon has sold between 15 and 17 million since gen 3.

It will sell 15 million over the next ~3 years.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:23:13 No.41060218 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060178
The first week is what matters.

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1546188471416.png, 47KiB, 495x656

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:23:34 No.41060239 Report

Quoted By: >>41060682

>>41060002
>>41060178
R^2 for the first regression was 0.61, the second was 0.45

>>41060043
Only slightly better

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:23:53 No.41060252 Report

Quoted By: >>41060344

>>41059784
Isn't the Switch way more popular than the 3DS? This game might do better lmao

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:25:18 No.41060325 Report

Quoted By: >>41060540 >>41061476

>>41059784
try use parabolic. maybe the r squared is better

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1568207515914.png, 150KiB, 843x486

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:25:34 No.41060344 Report

Quoted By: >>41060587

>>41060252
Not really

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:29:28 No.41060520 Report

Quoted By: >>41060776

>>41059784
>plotting generation number vs sales
wtf
why not plot sales of individual games over time and do a regression on that

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1548567038693.png, 69KiB, 490x781

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:30:01 No.41060540 Report

Quoted By: >>41061185

>>41060325
>>41060107
The R^2 is 0.91, but this would entail that SWSH is the third highest selling game in franchise history

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:30:58 No.41060587 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060344
They really fucked up with the Wii U didn't they? I didn't even realize the Wii was that popular.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:32:49 No.41060682 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060239
~3M+ sales is a bit more than "slightly better"

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:34:44 No.41060776 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060520
I'll do that. I'm not trying to confirm my own bias, I just want to crunch the numbers and make some actual predictions.

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:37:32 No.41060916 Report

Quoted By: >>41060963 >>41060976 >>41061054

>>41059784
SS won't sell more than 10 million copies, dexit memes are starting to get normalfag appeal. The end of pokemon begins now

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:38:29 No.41060963 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060916
delusional retard

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:38:40 No.41060976 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060916
>The end of pokemon begins now
If only

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:40:12 No.41061054 Report

Quoted By:

>>41060916
It will sell FAR more than 10 million copies

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:41:40 No.41061117 Report

Quoted By:

game freak will bank corrupt lol

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:41:52 No.41061125 Report

Quoted By:

I'd say with all this backlash that was more than LGPE even at this point I'd say 13-14 million is a safe estimate. As long as it sells less than BW I will be happy.

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:43:07 No.41061185 Report

Quoted By: >>41061386 >>41061476

>>41060540
fuck not parabolic. i don't remember the term for half life decay curve. hyperbole?

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:43:11 No.41061189 Report

Quoted By: >>41061476

Full mainline titles minus legpiss, sales/year
Linear r^2: 0.14
Quad r^2: 0.337

Anonymous

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Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:47:05 No.41061386 Report

Quoted By:

>>41061185
Exponential?
Gives R^2 of 0.9617

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO according-to-my-calculations-you (...).jpg, 46KiB, 552x545

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:48:58 No.41061476 Report

Quoted By: >>41061529 >>41061570 >>41061904

>>41059784
>>41060002
>>41060107
>>41060178
>>41060325
>>41061185
>>41061189
>durr look at me so smart

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:49:12 No.41061489 Report

Quoted By:

>this thread has proved, mathematically, that SHSW will sell between 10 and 21M copies
Wow, nobody could have predicted that

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:49:42 No.41061506 Report

Quoted By:

>>41059784
it will sell that much in its first few months, deluded faggot. let's go sold 10 million in 2 months

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:50:06 No.41061529 Report

Quoted By:

>>41061476
>mass reply poster is a brainlet
imagine my shock

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO 1555973600042.png, 45KiB, 394x731

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:50:23 No.41061546 Report

Quoted By:

Best results so far are for an exponential regression:
sales = 41.6374*exp(-0.969408*gen)+15.8263
R^2=0.9617
My money is on 16 million copies

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:51:02 No.41061570 Report

Quoted By:

>>41061476
>i don’t understand the joke so i’m going to post a green text because i don’t know high school level algebra

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:52:10 No.41061627 Report

Quoted By:

>>41059784
Does the sales data fulfill Gauss-Markov assumptions?

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:55:56 No.41061795 Report

Quoted By:

Furthermore, I think the sales will be overall slightly depressed due to the increased cost and negative publicity

Anonymous

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:57:47 No.41061904 Report

Quoted By:

>>41061476
Here let me try something more your speed:
>durrr doyyyy
>dextranny
>shill
>domesticated
>cope
>seethe
>dilate

Anonymous

View Same Google ImgOps iqdb SauceNAO Consoles tho.jpg, 291KiB, 1242x941

Anonymous Mon 11 Nov 2019 22:59:18 No.41061998 Report

Quoted By:

I feel like people look directly at sales of the game and not the hardware themselves. Does this change predictions for anyone?

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