Depends on how large the first shipment is, if they over shipped I expect it to land above Black and White with the 2nd large shipment+bundles for next year
If they shipped it normally I expect the outcry to lower the games' value by a significant amount and hover around HGSS
There's already some rumblings the game was MASSIVELY over shipped, though, because Nintendo needs this crap to sell and Carry the Switch fro 3+ months, but the outrage will only increase once people buy it and it will reignite once Home releases, so at this point it's anyone's game