Holy fucking bait. If not
>>43892327Probabilities don't add additively, read a book.
>>43892325The 51% is gotten from calculating the probability neither hit flinches, or .7 for two events, multiplied together for .49, then subtracted off 1 (event always occurs) to get .51.
If you had known this, you would have realized Serene Grace changes the probabilities in the equation entirely, not the final result, so instead it's .4 * .4 to get .16 as not-flinch, which means 84% chance to flinch.
Go back to school