>>56286935>It doesn’t matter what the entire pool is if you’re only interested in what a subset of that pool is.I was talking about my own experience.
I wasn't even aware that people could bot raids, or rather, that they would have any reason to host these raids publically. I thought I had started the painful path of a 1/4103 dice roll for a shiny every time I joined a raid. While getting a shiny in 20 tries is extremely, extraordinarily lucky, it's not completely incomprehensible. That's 1-(4102/4103)^20, which is not too far away from 1/200. Lucky, but not enough to raise my suspicions during the afterglow of getting that lucky.
But, 32*32 is 1,024, and getting that lucky on top of already getting quite lucky is when it suddenly clicked. While 1/1024 events do happen, the odds of that on top of the 1/4103, even with 20 tries, was ridiculous enough to make me wonder how the odds had been stacked in my favor. It's only poking around on the internet afterwards that I learned about the bots.
I kind of feel stupid for needing that extra step to begin suspecting something, since a shiny so quickly should have been enough of a flag, but not questioning good fortune is part of human nature.
