>>95244679Stock Watch anon here again. Here's my overview/summary of the Q3 2025 report for Cover Corp.
As always, do not take any opinion I say here as gospel/advice. I’m not properly educated in these subjects. I highly recommend you look at the report yourself or atleast listen to someone with actual experience.
The first thing of note to go over is that Cover has officially revised their full year earnings forecast. Going from roughly 36.481 Billion yen (referring to as just 36 from here on) to now forecasting 42 billion yen for this year, a 15.1% increase. The reasons they state mostly relate to previous events such as the TCG, and Licensing/Collab projects in addition to all initiatives seeing notable gains YoY this quarter. The report will be referring to the revised forecast.
Cover’s Q3 sees a record quarter for revenue at roughly 11.7 billion yen, a 69.2% increase for last year’s Q3 and beating out Q4 2024 for their best quarter so far. All sources of revenue saw decent gains YoY, with Merchandise and Concerts/Events seeing double their revenue from last year (101.7% and 143.8% respectively). Merchandise especially carries this quarter, accounting for the majority of revenue at 49.4% hallmarking Cover’s revenue path from streaming and content creation to more so IP and Brand related revenues.
However, with the new revised forecast Cover is only 68.7% of the way to their revised forecast for the year. Q4 will need to shatter this newly established record quarter with at least 13.2 Billion yen just to meet the forecast. A rather risk maneuver but if going by their history the past two Q4s have been record setting in revenue thanks to Holofes, so there’s reason for their confidence.
Costs continue to rise as they spent 5.89 billion yen this quarter, up 1 billion compared to last quarter and 2 billion last year. They still barely see record profits of 5.862 billion yen, beating out last quarter’s record of 5.757 but the margins took a slight dive to 49.9% compared to last quarter’s 53.9% (still beat’s out last year’s margin of 45.4%). SG&A expenses saw an incremental rise as well, but this is due to the fact of outsourcing costs to strengthen the North American branch according to them.
As for continued developments for the remaining Fiscal year, Cover makes note of Mori Calliope’s Sololive later this month as well as the upcoming HoloFes in March. As well as more releases for the TCG and plans to re-release existing TCG products and expansion of “purchasing opportunities.” Regarding game development with HoloIndie and Holoearth. Two titles were mentioned for holoindie: "Okayu Nyumu", which will release on the 27th of February, and "Juufuutei Raden’s Guide for Pixel Museum", scheduled for a 2025 release. The progress for Holoearth is “progressing smoothly”.
Lastly, Cover gives a small update in their application to the prime market on the TSE, which essentially boils down to “there is no news.”
Overall a good quarter overall in my opinion (which shouldn’t hold much weight.), beating old records but are still being slightly held back in profit from increased spending. That Q4 is gonna be real interesting however, part of me is kinda wary if they can pull off the forecast. I'm not gonna bother predicting how the shareholders will react since frankly, I'm human and they're not.
But that's all for now. I'm going to go enjoy my gacha slop. See you tomorrow for the fallout.
