>>97918079From the point of view of pcg.
If pcg wins, it ends with 7 points.
- If fvr wins, both pcg (7) and fvr (6) qualify.
- If bg wins, both pcg (7) and bg (7) qualify.
- If fvr and bg tie, both pcg (7) and bg (5) qualify.
If pcg draws, it ends with 5 points, and keeps the +3 goal difference.
- If fvr wins, both pcg (5) and fvr (6) qualify.
- If bg wins, both pcg (5) and bg (7) qualify.
- If bg and fvr tie, both pcg (5) and bg (5) qualify.
If pcg loses, it ends with 4 points.
- If fvr wins, fvr (6) advances, and pcg and bg would be tied with 4 points. Before their losses pcg and bg would have goal difference of +3. So for pcg to advance it needs bg to lose worse than pcg.
- If bg wins, both pcg (4) and bg (7) qualify.
- If fvr and bg tie, bg (5) advances, and pcg and fvr would be tied with 4 points. Before the loss pcg would have a goal difference of +3, and fvr would remain at +1. So for pcg to advance it needs to avoid losing by 3 or more goals.
So, pcg has the best situation in the group because they can advance by winning, drawing, or losing their last match, which is against the worst team in the group, and which has already been eliminated from contention. I give pcg 80% chance of advancing, and fvr 30%.
