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I heard somewhere that Myth knew about Ame's decision since Myth 1 block - so mid-June at the latest. Considering how close Gura and Ame are, I have to imagine Gura specifically will have known for a while before that. That, combined with the Full Color troubles, perms frustration, and all the travel and big collaborations - on top of her poor health - explains how she could have been feeling "a lot better" and genuinely hoping things would turn around in January, only for this year to have even fewer streams than 2023 - one source of demotivation got replaced by another. Also explains why, despite streaming less, there wasn't any one particular dry streak anywhere near as long as the drought from September 14th to January 24 (not counting the Sendai Aquarium shill stream ofc).
People like to try to pinpoint one specific exact reason to explain everything that's happened, but the more I think about it, the more I realize: it really isn't just one factor, is it? It's everything all going terribly wrong all at once. Our shark can't catch a fucking break, and I just want to hold her and comfort her and let her know everything is going to be okay.
