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After watching the atmosphere around Hololive and outside of it for the past couple of weeks, I'm gonna have to revise the expectations I had for Aqua's graduation live.
Coco was a phenomenon in the sense that a large part of Hololive's early culture was tied to her, and this applied both in EN AND in JP.
The graduation was talked about and promoted by all the various e-celebs that were swarming around Hololive at the time, and there was also the China angle pushed by dramafags.
I think this is why it was able to reach close to 500k.
Initially I thought that Aqua would surpass it, since she got like 200k from her announcement stream alone, but that was also caused by a ton of holomem doomposting and people finding bits and pieces like the Nene break and continuing the doompost train + her thumbnail for the announcement invoking numbers because she only ever used that one for serious topics.
The "hype" so to speak hasn't exactly calmed down within Hololive, but I think outside I think it's pretty much dead.
E-celebs have realized that Holos won't give them the time of day, so they aren't gonna promote or talk about it.
The JP box is probably bigger, so I think we can expect at least 250-300k from them alone (based on Pekora's PuyoTeto peak + graduation buff), but I think the EN box is a lot smaller than it was during the Myth era, and highly secluded to EN alone since Aqua didn't have the same level of EN connectivity that Coco during her peak.
Meaning you could see maybe 50k - 100k people from the EN box waking up to watch the graduation live (but they'll probably watch the VOD).
So even though I had initially predicted 500k+ for Aqua's graduation live, I think a more realistic prediction considering current circumstances would be around -
> 300k - 400k
I don't think she'll clear 500k.
Feel free to grudgepost me.
