>>88510021VT Stats says that the branch sans Denauth have made 18.9 million yen over the past 30 days. So let's be extra generous and round it up to 20m, and then extrapolate it to 3 months - so that would be 60m yen in streaming revenue for Q2.
They had 200m yen in Q1. 60m in streaming revenue would be their worst-performing quarter since Q3 2022 (Nov 2021 - Jan 2022), and would even be less than their commerce revenue from that same quarter.
Speaking of commerce, they've hade about 2.5-3.5x commerce revenue compared to streaming revenue, nearly every quarter except that quarter and the last quarter. Being generous and assuming that they got 3x commerce revenue, that's 180m yen. That would be their worst performance since right before Noctyx's debuts.
If there's a pattern to their promotion revenue, I can't discern it. So in the interests of both being overly generous to Anycolor and keeping my own math simple, I'm just gonna pull a number out of my ass and assume that they made 130m yen in Q2 promotions.
Events is another goose egg for them, which would actually be an improvement over the previous quarter. They can't cancel events for lack of ticket sales, if they don't book those events in the first place.
If my (incredibly bad) numbers are accurate, that comes up to a Q2 revenue of about 370m yen. They made 682m yen last quarter, and 1263m yen in Q2 2024 - it would be a YOY drop of about 70.7%.
I am acutely aware that I'm being much more favorable to AC than they deserve, and that the actual numbers will almost certainly be significantly worse. This is intentional; I'm trying to make a prediction that's as high as reasonably practical, e.g. it would not be reasonable to assume that they made 300m in streaming revenue or 1000m in commerce this quarter.
Screencap this post. I know my numbers are wrong. But when comparing this post's numbers to the actual numbers when it's published in December, know that this post's prediction is 3.6 roentgen, and the real number will be closer to 15,000 r.
