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A lake is a pool of water but also a mathematical metaphor.
Water flows in, water flows out.
The size of the lake is the net amount of water which has flowed in, minus the net amount of water which has flowed out. So technically the inflow and outflow can be equal and the lake can still be huge, if, in the past, they were not.
This is a good metaphor for vtuber viewers.
They come in at a slow rate, and leave at a slow rate. The number of active viewers is the difference between those values. Just a each molecule of water has a characteristic time in the lake, each person in the subscriber pool has a characteristic time they pay attention to the vtuber.
In this case, the inflowing river has dries up to a trickle, while the outflowing river continues apace. The only result, therefore, is the lake drying up over time. The net amount of viewers will continue to decrease at a mathematical rate.
Each viewer has a propensity which determines how long they are likely to stick around. As people leave, the outflows will slow, since the hardcore fans leave at a slower rate. But leave they do.
Thus in this industry the long term viewership levels are directly proportional to the inflows.
We can reliably predict that viewers will decline by observing declines in suscriber income, if nothing else.
