>>7991206I thought I'd return to simplicity with 4th gen but nope, this ones a massive mess of conflicting interests as well.
First of all the Kanatan Atoll. This ones by far the simplest to explain. The Kanatan Atoll trades, and tries to prevent piracy. Its in no ones best interest to invade it because holy fuck that things going to be a nightmare to keep subjugated, and you'll piss everyone else off by doing it because you'll be making trade harder, and it doesn't have enough arable land to have a population large enough, and its too distracted by dealing with piracy bred by its geography, to project its power outside of its own sphere of influence. Its not a power, but its not at risk either: its just kind of there.
Now onto the Watamestan: Its all desert. Only a small portion of it is arable, along the east coast, the rest is unfarmable, unlivable desert. However there is good news! This gives it great defensive geography! IT also has a trade route that goes right through it. There is also however bad news: It has the massive Dragon States of America up stream from it along that route. There is yet however more good news: The DSA is very thinly spread and very distracted. While Watamestan won't be pulling anything crazy in the region, at least for the time being it gets to benefit from the trade route, through piracy and through honest exchange, at least until the Dragon States has caught its breath from whatever its dealing with on its eastern side.
The Dragon States of America is, on one hand, very big. On the other, most of it is useless desert. Only the southern parts of it are farmable. What's more, the Tokogawa Towa Shogunate to the west would be stupid not to try and pick off territory that could easily be theirs, especially when the DSA gives them such an easy shot at their heartland.
War between Twappistan and the DSA is inevitable. It will also be incredibly messy: both have roughly the same amount of arable land, so similar populations. In the end of the day, victory in the war is left down to who ever can man a better navy.
Finally the Candy Kingdom. The Candy Kingdom is a Utopia. The entirety of the island it resides upon is arable, and it has an internal sea that keeps the entire thing pleasantly internally connected, it has a trade route going through its land. I at first thought "wow, the Lunaito are going to be super militaristic and aggressive" but then I realised: why would they? they already have everything they could ever want, and everyone else is over seas from them. The one thing that could pull them into a conflict is on the off chance Twappistan has the second coming of Admiral Yi among their ranks, and so utterly obliterates the DSA that they still have the energy to go for the nearby islands, but that's such an extreme fringe case that I might as well not include it. Luna is ruling her kingdom on easy mode.