>>97885370Last game, if fvr wins, it ends with 6 points.
- If pcg wins, both fvr (6) and pcg (7) qualify.
- If tactical wins, fvr advances (6), and pcg and bg would be tied with 4 points. The team that advances of those two would be the one with the higher goal difference. Both sit at +3 at the moment but if both pcg and bg lose, then their goal difference would depend on the magnitude of their loss. One could end with +2, and the other with +1, or one at 0, and the other at -2, etc.
- If pcg and tactical tie, both fvr (6) and pcg (5) qualify.
If fvr draws, it ends with 4 points, and keeps the +1 goal difference.
- If pcg wins, both pcg (7) and bg (5) qualify.
- If tactical wins, bg (5) advances, and both fvr and pcg would be tied with 4 points. Fvr would be at +1 goal difference, and pcg's goal difference would go down from +3 to +2, or +1, or +0, etc. depending on their loss. In order to qualify fvr would need pcg to lose badly, by a margin of 3 goals.
- If pcg and tactical tie, both pcg (5) and bg (5) qualify.
So, fvr still controls its destiny. We just need to win our last game. If we tie, then pcg needs to lose.
In theory pcg has the best situation because they can advance by winning, tying, or even losing their last match. They are also facing the weakest team in the group, which has already been eliminated from contention. I give pcg 80% chance of advancing, while fvr has 30%, less than ideal but still possible.
