>>108909157Miko still has higher overall watch time, so things aren’t as bad as they might look at first glance. If Pekora and Subaru want to rise to the top, they’ll have to deal with sukonbu and miofa, since those groups often treat Miko as their go-to second option.
The tricky part is this: Subaru actually has a solid chance of replacing Miko as a secondary watch for sukonbu and miofa, but she doesn’t have the support of the 3rd gen fanbase. Pekora, on the other hand, has very strong backing from 3rd gen fans, but she’ll probably never become the default second choice for sukonbu and miofa.
In the end, the battle for the throne will likely come down to a few key factors:
1) Koronesuki and Onigiryaa
Miko will want to win over these two groups, since locking down the core gamers' fanbases as a set is a huge advantage. Subaru should be aiming for the same goal, but she’s currently behind Miko in that race and eill never catch up unless Miko self-destruct harder. For Pekora, stopping Miko from completing the set might be just as important as expanding her own reach.
2) Fans of 4th gen, 5th gen, and holoX
This is more of an open field, but Pekora has a slight edge and a narrative that could help her gain support from these groups. Simply being a 3rd gen member already makes her more approachable to them compared to Gen 0 or gamers members, who feel more like the “old guards” with stronger internal standing in the company.
3) DEV IS
This branch was created to target a different demographic and could bring major benefits in the future. Whoever builds the strongest relationships with these kouhai will have a serious shot at becoming Hololive’s #1 down the line
As for attracting new fans and casual viewers, due to streaming style, right now it is Pekora > Subaru > Miko
As for hardcore fan retention: Miko > Subaru > Pekora
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