>>109620679The first question there is what about channels that get big raids that don't get targetted by the engine?
Just a few counter examples would bring that being the trigger into question right?
Second question would be inconsistent timelines.
IRyS makes sense since it's the next stream a couple of days later.
The Alien stream you used for Mori rounds off at 10k after an hour, then picks up and continously inclines 5k over the next 2 hours. So decent chance it was engined before the raid, and would fit better since the POE stream was before it. Was only a smaller raid though, possibly too small. Then there's a few streams that don't get hit, in between that and that Demon's Souls stream. So there seems to be more to it.
Clio also seems to fit.
For Biboo it's almost two weeks with a few normal looking streams before it kicked in. Even a couple of definitely normal MonHun streams, so the same game.
For Nimi, using that as the first instance seems a little dubious, since the graph looks pretty normal. It's the streams after that where it looks like it starts to kick in. Either way that's a week delay with 3-4 normal streams in between.
If raiding is the trigger, why is there sometimes so much delay and inconsistencies with it.
I don't know if you can really use Wilson, since the nijiEN MC server streams seem to have been the catalyst for it hitting EN streamers and spreading. But that's still a month delay.
Also as the other anon pointed out it started with some nijiJP streamers a few months before, where I don't think raids were a factor.
Raids from engined streams causing it to spread seems to make sense, and has been a general theory since it started. Also think having a decent sized stream when no regular targets are available opens you up to being targetted. Think that's probably what happened to Nimi. I also think a few other EN members, that don't usually get targetted, have had streams get hit for the same reason, but I don't want to dig through a year of streams to find the examples I'm thinking of
