>>23274601There are varying degrees/reasons for "graduation", for example when you mean it in the sense of "who's most likely to get fired because of some insurmountable yab", you'd have to arrange the list of girls in order of their likelihood to commit such a yab (and while we might disagree on the lower order, I think it's board consensus who's on the top of THAT list).
Now if you mean graduation in the more general, boring sense (for example, just an amicable split, a talent thinks it "has enough", is bored, is looking for "other opportunities" or whatever, and simply lets her contract run out and departs in good graces), then that list would maybe look a bit different from the first one, or at least the order.
It depends on a lot of things. For example, what would they do instead? Who's likely to have other passions they wanna pursue instead? Who has an alternative job lined up (and who's already actively working on it)? Or who's likely to just get out of the public spotlight and chill in private instead?
Also, for all the theories that rest on someone graduiating because they're being "burnt out / bored" from streaming, you have to consider it's not an all-or-nothing decision at all. Other examples of talents in Hololive have already shown you don't even need to quit completely if your heart's not in it anymore - if streaming is not your priority anymore, but it would be foolish to give up the most cushy best-paying gig you'll ever get in your life, you can just minmax your effort/workrate and go part-time like Ayame or Sana instead. It's obvious by now that Cover and the fans don't really care and let you get away with as little as you want. Take a few weeks of vacation breaks or whatever else you want to do instead of streaming, then come back for a few "return" streams to recharge on simpbux for a while, then fuck off again for your next vacation, rinse repeat endlessly.
So instead of actually hard-graduating, I think it's more likely that you rather see a Holo choose to simply soft-/semi-retire by drawing down her activities instead (but not completely going away) to whatever level they find personally more manageable instead
