>>28071398>Okay, then who are the hundreds of posters /here/ representing her fanbase that say that they've turned their back on her???The same math applies to Kson as it does to every other chuuba who has a hate bandwagon.
To do an honest Fermi estimation, here is how I think about.
Some are legitimately fans who feel betrayed, or don't like her anymore, or whatever. Some are the people who live in the catalog and sustain themselves by feasting on every rrat and following every hate bandwagon.
To guess the actual numbers, we can consider the IP counts in the bait threads and generals. Rarely do either go above 100, except in a 400+ post bait thread, in the very first hours after some big drama event. Spread it out over the time zones, and that some people don't post every day, I agree that your estimate of "hundreds of posters" discussing on /vt/ seems reasonable. However, there are four categories of posters: (1) some will be legitimately "turned their back" fans as you say, (2) others are bandwagoning drama-lovers, (3) some are randos popping to gawk but don't really care one way or another, and (4) remaining fans defending their oshi.
The actual ratio is unknowable, so let's peg it at equal quarters turned-their-backs, bandwagoners, randos and remaining fans. We're just Fermi/order-of-magnitude estimating, so if it were 30%, 20%, 20%, 30% the general guess would still be in the same range.
That gives us 1 out of 4 categories of posters, out of a few hundred.
Using 300 for the low end of "hundreds", and 900 for the high end, that gives the estimate a spread of 75 to 225 posters in the "fans who turned their backs" category. I'm happy to guess conservatively so call it 200 posters.
"But what about lurkers?"
"What about other fans who have left and not said anything?"
I'm not really addressing how many actual fans have been lost, across all platforms and all time. Obviously that number is higher than 200! My estimate is focused specifically on "How many actual former fans complain about it /here/, and is it enough to matter?"
My estimate is 200 legitimate former fans who are upset enough to post on /vt/ at some frequency. I do not believe that is not enough people for the Japanese audience (or even a Japanese chuuba) to know about or care about.
She definitely cares too much about the opinion of the JP twitter audience though. 
