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I want to preface this by saying I doubt any of them will graduate. Everybody in Myth has a reason to remain for one reason or another and just the fact that they're still around is a testament to their tenacity in the face of bad management and misguided projects.
However, if there HAS to be someone chosen as a first to graduate, the order would go:
>Gura = Ame > Kiara > Ina > Mori
You can argue that the girls said this or Cover won't allow someone to leave, but objectively, this is the only ranking (from most likely to least) that makes sense.
>Gura spoke about how she feels compelled to have stories to talk about and would take days off just to "build them up". Has spoken about her social anxiety and paranoia with chat learning personal details about her.
>Ame is a compulsive project-maker. She would commission tons of artists and create the foundations of long-term projects but only use them once, unless you were lucky and the project allowed for a few more episodes of creativity. Has spoken about how she feels that "doing an episode 2" is boring, resulting in creative burn-out and thus simply not streaming (going "potato"). This is doubly-ironic when you consider how Ame tends to disappear nowadays only to return with a karaoke.
Gura and Ame are equally likely to leave first, should someone leave because of these reasons. Neither of them need the money anymore so it comes down to appreciation of the job itself, of which both seem to struggle with due to a mixture of social anxiety, imposter syndrome, and bullheadedness.
Then you have Kiara, Ina, and Mori who each have reasons beyond just money to remain while also loving the environment Hololive provides. These three interact with their kohai and senpai, and even one another, the most in Myth. That's something you don't really see with Gura, who mentioned on multiple occasions the last few years that she only really talks to Ame; and Ame, who never seems to talk to anybody besides Gura (like how just a few weeks ago when Ame said she was traveling, Ina was asked if she'd see Ame in Japan and she was just like "???? maybe??? I haven't spoken to her" despite talking to Mori and Kiara all the time during this period).
So for a
>tl;dr
Gura or Ame will absolutely be the first to go, but I don't see any of them actually leaving anytime soon. Kiara, Ina, and Mori will be in Hololive for years to come unless something dramatic happens within the ecosystem.
