>>76476225>>76476057If you treat every unique permutation of each size as an equal-chance occurrence, including full all-four-member overlaps, there are 64 arrangements per round. If you give them all numbers 1 through 4, and exclude all that contain any number, there are only 15 that exclude one of the numbers (the total permutations are dominated by the choose four set, which naturally includes all).
15 out of 64 is 23.4375%
Run twice, independently, is ~5.4932%.
