Rather than assume dead subs and then justify that, work forward from "where does Gura get her subs from" for a different way of looking at the situation. ***Since I'm not omniscient of course some of these are going to be assumptions
Agree or not, singing is one of Gura's draws. Right from debut and Ride on time, she has always had people who sub to her for her karaoke, be it from clips or otherwise.
People also sub to "cute girl gets scared out of her wits in horror game".
People also sub for Minecraft, because well, of course they do.
Then there are people who sub for the sake of subbing to get her to 3m wanted to be part of something. These are the deadest of dead subs and likely will never tune in to catch a stream live or even watch clips.
There are people who are HERfags and thought she'd produce short clips and the like, but never unsubbed. These too, are pretty dead, since they likely just watch clips and won't check VOD since clips are closer to the short video format.
Some people will sub with the intention of watching the cute shark do cute things, and these are the most likely to catch streams live, alongside those that just enjoy her as a streamer and can make it live due to timezones. All together, this number is ~10kish, and is the floor for Gura's streams. Any less and some sort of fuckery besides debuff game is afoot (deadspace 3 started way out of her usual timeslot and is also a pretty mediocre game).
At a certain point with the mix of content (singing, gaming subgenres, talking) that you're good at, you're going to end up with subs that want one thing but just won't show up to anything else. Just due to sheer size, I have no doubt Gura's fanbase is heavily fragmented. They'll show for big things like costume reveals, original songs/covers (Gura please release some covers on your channel.....) And the like, but they're going to be equivalent of tourists otherwise.
