>>85080387>>85080465>>85080097>>85080179How far the decline will be for Hololive English if Gawr Gura were to graduate?
Estimate the market share percentage in a year after
ChatGPT said:
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Estimating the specific market share percentage decline for Hololive English (Hololive EN) if Gawr Gura were to graduate is challenging due to the many variables involved. However, Gawr Gura's graduation would undoubtedly have a significant impact on Hololive EN given her status as its most popular member. Here are some factors to consider and a speculative estimation based on these factors:
Factors Affecting the Market Share Decline
Gawr Gura's Popularity and Influence:
Gawr Gura is currently the most subscribed VTuber in the world, with over 4.5 million subscribers on YouTube. Her popularity extends beyond the core Hololive fanbase, attracting casual viewers and non-VTuber fans, significantly contributing to Hololive EN's overall visibility and brand strength.
Gura often acts as an entry point for new fans to discover other Hololive EN talents. Her collaborations, music releases, and viral moments generate substantial traffic to the Hololive EN ecosystem.
Impact on Viewer Retention and Engagement:
A significant portion of Hololive EN's audience could be considered "Chumbuds" (Gura's fans). While many of them might continue to watch other Hololive EN members, a noticeable percentage may disengage from the brand entirely if Gura were to graduate.
Gura's graduation could lead to a drop in overall viewer numbers, superchat revenue, and merchandise sales associated with Hololive EN. The extent of this drop would depend on how effectively the remaining talents can retain her audience.
Impact on Brand Perception:
Gura's presence in Hololive EN gives the group a unique selling point in the competitive VTuber market. Her graduation could negatively affect Hololive EN's brand perception, reducing its ability to attract new viewers, sponsors, and collaborators.
If Gura were to graduate on good terms, with a positive farewell event and clear communication from Cover Corp, it could mitigate some of the negative impacts. However, a sudden or controversial graduation could lead to a more pronounced decline.
Hololive EN's Remaining Talents and Growth Strategy:
The other talents in Hololive EN (such as Mori Calliope, Takanashi Kiara, Amelia Watson, Ninomae Ina'nis, and members from the newer generations like IRyS and Hololive Council) have built their own strong communities and can continue to grow in popularity. Hololive EN has also been expanding with new generations, which could help offset some of the losses.
Hololive could mitigate Gura's absence by promoting other members, developing new talent, and expanding their content strategy (e.g., more collaborations, events, and music projects).
Market Trends and Competitive Landscape:
The VTuber market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Nijisanji EN and various indie VTubers gaining traction. Gura's graduation could lead to a temporary decline in Hololive EN's market share as some fans may explore other VTubers or agencies.
Hololive's established global brand and partnerships would still provide them with a competitive edge, but they would need to adapt to retain their market position.
Speculative Estimation of Market Share Decline
Short-Term Impact (3-6 months after graduation):
A decline of around 15-25% in market share for Hololive EN could be expected in the months immediately following Gura's graduation. This decline would likely be reflected in reduced viewership numbers, lower superchat revenue, and decreased merchandise sales.
A dip in overall engagement levels could be anticipated as the fanbase adjusts to her absence, and some fans may leave the ecosystem altogether.
Long-Term Impact (1 year after graduation):
Over the course of a year, Hololive EN could see a more stabilized decline of around 10-20% in market share, assuming no other major talents graduate or controversies arise. This decline could be moderated by effective promotion of other talents, new debuts, and strategic content initiatives.
The decline could be more severe (closer to 20-30%) if there is poor management of the transition period, a lack of compelling new content, or further graduations of key talents.
Factors That Could Offset the Decline:
Successful debut of new generations or talents who can capture a wide audience.
Increased collaborations, both within Hololive and with other companies or independent creators.
Expansion into new markets or innovative content strategies (e.g., more 3D concerts, international events, diverse content offerings).
