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Quoted By: >>98280181 >>98280634 >>98280928 >>98281723 >>98281790 >>98282040 >>98282051 >>98285056 >>98285347 >>98287361 >>98288467
With the graduation announcement of Mumei, I started to really think about why we're losing so many holomems. So, over the last 10+ hours, I've been autistically looking at data.
I've concluded that Gura will graduate in October 2025. The announcement will be in September.
>What leads you to believe this?
Gura's stream time is very similar to Mumei's stream time in terms of percentage, and both have shown a lot of tell-tale signs of both burnout and decline of interest. (Please keep in mind I will not be counting unarchived content as, looking at the data right now, I cannot account for it.)
Healthy streaming rates for vtubers NOT in danger of graduating is about 2 streams a week. Every vtuber regardless of indie or corp has been above 2 streams a week and in NO DANGER of graduating due to burn out.
Mumei has streamed, over the current 6 month interval, a total of 4,618 minutes. The previous 6 months came to 6,345 minutes. This is a difference of 31.05%. She's streamed a total of 63 times. This is only slightly more than 1 stream a month, or to put it in a better perspective, less than 1 stream every 2 weeks. Before that, it was 7,592 minutes. Compared to the next 6 months, that's a drop of 17.89% rounded down. We go even before that, so now 2 years ago, and she streamed for 9,462 minutes. Percentage difference is 21.9%. We see a significant and consistent decline.
Gura has streamed, over the current 6 month interval, a total of 3,266 minutes. Before that, a total of 3,573 minutes. A difference of 8.97% rounded down. On a similar scale, if we double that percentage, we get 17.94%. Extremely close to Mumei's 17.89% drop Between a year and 18 months ago.
If going trend continues, between now and September 2025, we should see Gura's Stream time go from 3,266 minutes to somewhere around 2,760 minutes.
Mumei's decision was likely made after her 3.0 stream almost 2 months ago. Gura's will likely be made in July, as both Mumei and Gura are very similar in how they act and think.
I've concluded that Gura will graduate in October 2025. The announcement will be in September.
>What leads you to believe this?
Gura's stream time is very similar to Mumei's stream time in terms of percentage, and both have shown a lot of tell-tale signs of both burnout and decline of interest. (Please keep in mind I will not be counting unarchived content as, looking at the data right now, I cannot account for it.)
Healthy streaming rates for vtubers NOT in danger of graduating is about 2 streams a week. Every vtuber regardless of indie or corp has been above 2 streams a week and in NO DANGER of graduating due to burn out.
Mumei has streamed, over the current 6 month interval, a total of 4,618 minutes. The previous 6 months came to 6,345 minutes. This is a difference of 31.05%. She's streamed a total of 63 times. This is only slightly more than 1 stream a month, or to put it in a better perspective, less than 1 stream every 2 weeks. Before that, it was 7,592 minutes. Compared to the next 6 months, that's a drop of 17.89% rounded down. We go even before that, so now 2 years ago, and she streamed for 9,462 minutes. Percentage difference is 21.9%. We see a significant and consistent decline.
Gura has streamed, over the current 6 month interval, a total of 3,266 minutes. Before that, a total of 3,573 minutes. A difference of 8.97% rounded down. On a similar scale, if we double that percentage, we get 17.94%. Extremely close to Mumei's 17.89% drop Between a year and 18 months ago.
If going trend continues, between now and September 2025, we should see Gura's Stream time go from 3,266 minutes to somewhere around 2,760 minutes.
Mumei's decision was likely made after her 3.0 stream almost 2 months ago. Gura's will likely be made in July, as both Mumei and Gura are very similar in how they act and think.
