>>810134You're getting confused at "you pick a box at random"
Right after that you are given the fact that you have picked up a green ball from it, so it can't be box 3, it doesn't have to do with the probability, the statement is trying to mess with you
>>810184>>810140Your question was a bit vague, "You pick a box and a ball at random until you get a green ball", do I restart back to picking a box after each failed attempt to get a green ball?
If not:
So this just becomes a matter of choosing a box, you don't even have to include the balls in this*, you are just trying to guess the box I picked, with the balls being irrelevant as both contain a green ball for me to take
So working with just the boxes now: it is a 50/50 guess of which box I chose
*What allows this to happen is the fact that the bet only starts when I have picked up a green ball, no attempt limit, making all other balls irrelevant - just a matter of time
If I do:
This changes if I have to restart when I fail to pick up a green ball first-try, and in that case box 1 is much more likely to be the one that was picked:
(with box 2 containing 99 reds and 1 green)
box 1: 100% chance to be "saved" if I go with that because I will always take a green ball from it
box 2: 1/100 chance to pick up the green, so 0.01% that it will be saved
So it is 100 times more likely that I have chosen and saved box 1,
>>810209 related
And to answer your question: I wouldn't bet regardless because I don't like gambling, even if it's a proven win mathematically
>>810218Tell me mr brilliant, how can the statement "You take out a random ball, it's green" be fulfilled if you chose the third box?
In that case you have already failed the statement, the problem is void and you have to start over.
That possibility is not counted because you can't start the problem like this.
>>810285based non-retard
>>810291it really is just the same wether it's possible you failed some box-picks or not, see two replies above
