>>10383967>Leafbrain won't stop leafing>He doesn't even know what redditspacing isOh god. I bet you voted Trudeau.
Okay, think of the Monty Hall scenario.
Two doors have goats, one a car. You want the car.
You pick a door, and a different door is opened to reveal a goat, do you switch?
If we use your logic here, it doesn't matter if we switch or not, because there's only two doors left and that means there's only a 50% chance of getting the car. But that's wrong
Just like in this scenario, the first choice counts in the Monty Hall problem. Your odds of picking one of the goats on your first choice is 2/3, your odds of getting the car is 1/3, so you always switch to have the best chance.
Now back to this, remember the scenario as it is, but rephrase the question to this: Regardless of the colour of the ball you picked, what are the odds of you picking another ball of the same colour from the same box
The answer is simple, what are the odds of you NOT picking the box with two balls of different colours? It's 2/3.
The fact that we're examining only gold ball picks here is irrelevant, because even if we only look at gold ball picks, the results will look like this
You picked..
Gold ball 1 from box 1 - The next ball from the same box will be a gold ball
Gold ball 2 from box 1 - The next ball from the same box will be a gold ball
Gold ball 3 from box 2 - The next ball from the same box will NOT be a gold ball.
