>>2037485I also don't know shit, but to me it looks like its been dying for some time. the supply of small aircraft is diminishing, the prerequisites are growing (licensing, insurance, etc.), and interest is shifting towards more affordable alternatives (ie. drones, gliders, simulators, etc.)
There's of course fewer new planes being produced. but of the existing planes, I think its something like this: there's of course some still being flown, there's plenty which are broke, and I assume there's a whole lot just being sat on -- garaged by boomers, collecting dust (read: problems), maybe passing hands and getting flown for a year or two until its new owner realized its not worth it, and essentially just forever on sale for way more than its worth. its a collector's market at this point. maybe once the boomers are gone, something'll change, but there's assuredly many millennial faggots waiting to carry on the torch and sit on their prized scrap-heap c150 until they die.
you look when recreational flying had its high points, take say post-WWI for example, where there were tons of surplus bi-planes selling for dirt cheap (I seen the figure $500 somewhere, probably Wikipedia, which is like $8k today), lots of new stuff, innovation all around, limited regulation, a more positive view of aviation from the public (aside from major accidents like the Hindenburg), and low fatality counts (prior to WWII, after which they skyrocketed and never really returned.) Maybe that time's a bit too distant or whatever, but I think those trends carry over to other periods, say the 70s as the market really started to decline - regulations ramped up, plane production peaked and began to decline, and focus was by that point well turned towards commercial. it was by then a luxury.
there's hope in kit planes and homebuilding though, but most kits aren't exactly cheap either.
