>>16815622>>16815658Probability ultimately means jack shit. Yes you have more chances at getting a shiny hatching 20 eggs then if you had hatched 10 eggs, but that's it. That only means you may have gotten a shiny during the 20 hatches that you wouldn't have gotten during the 10. You're still rolling a die with thousands of sides on it each time, hoping for it to land on one exact number.
Contrast
>>16815674 with the Combee Guy, whose eggs were most likely bred under the exact same conditions with the exact same odds. In the end, it's entirely unpredictable, and every hatch is a shot in the dark.