>>14471426That's not how probability works. To put it as simply as possible, the way to work it out is to work out the probability of her NOT getting a shiny Magikarp 4096 times in a row. So that's 4095/4096, then multiply that by itself 4096 times, which gives you ~36.8%. So she had a 63.2% chance of getting it within that many tries, but (unfortunately for friend) that number can never reach 100%, even if she does 10,000 tries there's still a 9% chance of her not getting one.
