>>21840731>>21840677>>21840772Allow me to assist you ESLs.
If assumed to be accurate, the amount of concurrent viewers a stream has, accounting for the possibility of the same individual accounting for multiple views, directly relates to the amount of individual people watching a particular stream.
Now, each person in that pool has a potential to send one (or more) superchats. Without being able to look into the superchatting history of each individual identity [for the particular holo they are watching at the moment] (which actually would predict superchat probability/value more), one can propose that the the raw number of concurrent watchers is somewhat related to the total superchat value a stream will eventually receive.
This is complicated by many factors which are often not included in cursory analysis of superchatting history and Holo's streams. A few of these include: the nature of the stream. Karaoke streams may be more productive for specific Holos than others. Certain games may induce higher superchatting activity versus other games. Specifically audience-interactive holos may induce higher superchat activity during zatsudan or Q&A streams. Some other factors include: timslot. This is one of the more important factors that is honestly absent from many analyses I've seen in these threads. The timeslot (including date, time, and day of the week) undoubtedly influences superchat activity - first and foremost by the obvious nature of the fact that timeslot often determines the base audience for a particular stream. NA hours, EU hours, JP hours, etc. All actually do mean that the possible pool of people who can watch a stream is dictated probably *primarily* by the timeslot. Now, matching a particular Holo to their core audience is also an important factor that influences superchat activity. There's a reason why Hoomans have been trained by Mumei to stay active at her typical Moomaoke stream hours. We can go deeper into many other factors (that are underused) that influence superchat activity, but let's skip these for now.
Back to the main topic. The number of concurrent viewers is one of the better indicators of superchat availability (not activity) in the same way that the more people there are in a mall, the higher sales *tend* to be. You can make the case that this differs from Holo-to-Holo. All that means is that there is probably a CCV-to-SC coefficient that one can compute for a specific Holo, and I'm willing to bet that that coefficient will stay within a narrow range pero Holo. Gura for example may attract more "tourists", or even non-account views (i.e. not part of the possible superchat senders by definition - they do not have Youtube accounts). So her coefficient may be lower than someone like Kiara, who despite lower CCVs regularly outpaces Gura in total superchat value (but possibly not in raw amounts of individual superchatters). Of course, one isn't accounting for the timeslot difference in that particular comparison, but i already addressed that above.
1/x
