A closely watched market valuation gauge long favored by billionaire investor Warren Buffett is flashing its strongest warning yet as 2026 begins.

The indicator, commonly known as the Buffett Indicator, compares the total market value of publicly traded U.S. stocks to the nation’s gross domestic product.

It is designed to show whether the stock market is growing in line with economic output or racing ahead of it.

When the ratio moves far above its historical norm, it suggests investors are paying increasingly high prices for each dollar of economic activity, raising the risk of sharp corrections or recessions.

According to the latest data, the Buffett Indicator has surged to roughly 224%, the highest level on record. This means the total value of U.S. equities is now more than twice the size of the U.S. economy, an extreme divergence that has historically preceded periods of significant market stress.

What makes the current signal especially concerning is that the rise has occurred despite slowing growth signals in parts of the real economy. When market capitalization accelerates faster than GDP for prolonged periods, it implies expectations embedded in stock prices may be overly optimistic.

Historically, the adjustment back toward economic reality has tended to come through falling asset prices rather than rapid economic expansion.

The warning is emerging as many economists caution that the risk of an economic downturn is rising. Some analysts, including Henrik Zeberg, have pointed to increasing vulnerability to a prolonged market correction, citing slowing indicators such as labor market trends and weakening momentum across parts of the economy.

https://finbold.com/warren-buffetts-recession-indicator-flashes-2026s-first-major-warning/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/01/12/musk-apparently-acknowledges-child-with-ashley-st-clair-and-demands-custody-of-1-year-old-over-transgender-concerns/
Topline

Elon Musk appeared to publicly acknowledge his child with right-wing influencer Ashley St. Clair on Monday, seemingly confirming his parentage almost a year after saying he was uncertain whether he was the father of the baby, who Musk is now seeking custody of over concerns St. Clair “might transition a one-year-old boy.”

Key Facts

St. Clair strayed away from her reputation as a right-wing influencer in an X post last weekend and was asked about her history of transphobia, responding, “I feel immense guilt for my role.”

St. Clair said she felt “even more guilt” for things she has previously said that “may have caused my son’s sister more pain,” referring to Vivian Wilson, Musk’s eldest daughter who came out as transgender in 2020.

St. Clair apologized in the post, saying she has been “trying incredibly hard privately to learn + advocate for those within the trans community that I’ve hurt.”

Musk, responding to an X user who blasted St. Clair’s apology, said he will file for full custody of the child today given St. Clair’s “statements implying she might transition a one-year-old boy.”

St. Clair’s post did not indicate or suggest she would transition the child.

What Has St. Clair Said About The Transgender Community?

St. Clair is known for writing a children’s book titled, “Elephants Are Not Birds,” in which an elephant “learns that even though he can sing, he is not a bird, even if Culture insists that he is,” according to a synopsis. St. Clair said the book is an “unapologetic rebuke” of “transgender acceptance.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/09/jesse-ventura-trump-minnesota-governor-ice/88098645007/

In the wake of a deadly shooting by an immigration agent in his home state, former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura slammed President Donald Trump and hinted at another run for office.

“(Trump is) the draft-dodging coward who, when it was his time to serve his country, he did what all rich white boys did. I wasn’t a rich white boy. We had to go," Ventura, 74, told local reporters Jan. 8 when asked for his response to the shooting of Renee Nicole Good by a federal immigration agent in Minneapolis. "He’s gonna tell me what courage is?"

“What occurred yesterday did not have to happen," Ventura told reporters, calling Good's shooting a "tragedy" and a "murder."

"We're a third-world country now," said Ventura, the WWE pro wrestling hall of famer who was Minnesota's governor from 1999 to 2003. "You wanna know why? I'm an expert. I've been there. I spent 17 months in Southeast Asia while the draft dodger was playing golf."

Ventura is a former Navy SEAL and Vietnam veteran. Trump was a member of the generation eligible to be drafted for the Vietnam War, but did not serve after receiving several student draft deferments and a medical exemption.

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s administration has tried to shut down federal welfare spending in Democratic states over fraud cases in Minneapolis, proclaiming it the government’s duty “to protect taxpayer dollars and ensure these programs serve the families they were created to help.”

But the same administration let Republican-led Mississippi off the hook last year for one of the biggest welfare fraud scandals of all time.

Shortly before President Joe Biden left office, the Department of Health and Human Services’ Administration for Children and Families levied a $100 million penalty against Mississippi for allowing fraudsters to embezzle funds from the federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. The penalty reflected the estimated size of the fraud.

But the Trump administration reversed the decision in April after the Mississippi Department of Human Services said it uncovered records that could validate some of its allegedly improper spending, rescinding the penalty, and telling the state it would “issue a new penalty letter at the appropriate time.” Eight months later, no new letter has been sent.

In a statement on Monday, a spokesperson for HHS told HuffPost the ACF is “evaluating options to follow up with Mississippi.”

The deliberative back-and-forth between Mississippi and the federal government stands in stark contrast to the preemptive funding cutoff the Trump administration announced last week for several Democratic-led states. It calls into question whether the administration’s professed desire to stamp out fraud has more to do with politics than good governance.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/minnesota-welfare-fraud-trump-hhs-blue-states_n_69655c91e4b0365ff4dfc607?origin=top-ad-recirc

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/trump-credit-card-limit-banks-jpmorgan-citi.html

Banks and financial services stocks slid Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a 10%, one-year cap on credit card interest rates.

Capital One shares dropped 7% in early trading and Synchrony Financial tumbled 8%. Credit cards account for a large share of both banks’ business models. Other banks that are more diversified saw smaller losses. Citigroup lost almost 4%, JPMorgan Chase shed 2% and Bank of America fell 1%. Visa and Mastercard, credit card processors that don’t put any of their capital at risk, were down 2% each.

Other financial services names were caught in the downdraft. American Express
slumped 5%, while Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley declined about 1%.

The proposed cap would come into force on Jan. 20, according to a post on Truth Social on Friday, though Trump didn’t provide details on how it would work.

“Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%,” Trump wrote, echoing a pledge he made in the 2024 presidential campaign.

“Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies,” he added.

POV camera shows that lady appeared to try to ram an ICE agent with her vehicle

Leftists continue to lie to themselves
https://www.newsweek.com/ice-shooting-agent-minneapolis-video-bodycam-minnesota-footage-11337975
New Video Shows ICE Agent’s Perspective on Minneapolis Shooting

A new cellphone video released by Alpha News appears to show the perspective of an ICE agent involved in the fatal shooting of a woman in Minneapolis on Wednesday.

Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement sent to Newsweek, "This footage corroborates what DHS has stated all along—that this individual was impeding law enforcement and weaponized her vehicle in an attempt to kill or cause bodily harm to federal law enforcement. The officer was in fear of his own life, the lives of his fellow officers and acted in self-defense. The American people can watch this video with their own eyes and ears and judge for themselves.”

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reposted the video on X, writing: "WATCH."

Renee Nicole Good, 37, was fatally shot by an ICE officer during a traffic stop in a residential neighborhood in Minneapolis on Wednesday. The shooting came amid a series of immigration enforcement operations in major cities under President Donald Trump’s administration.

In the video shared by Alpha News, the ICE agent appears to approach the vehicle, with an individual in the driver's seat and the window down. Sirens can be heard in the background.

Vice President JD Vance shared the video on X, writing: "Watch this, as hard as it is. Many of you have been told this law enforcement officer wasn't hit by a car, wasn't being harassed, and murdered an innocent woman. The reality is that his life was endangered and he fired in self defense."

Leftists gathered for another riot, this time trashing event venues and random hotels looking for ICE (they didn't find them)

A rioter identified as Drey, 27, was actually quoted saying: "I don’t know if they (ICE) are here but we will do whatever it takes to keep Minneapolis safe," while he looted a hotel
https://www.newsweek.com/hundreds-ice-protesters-storm-minneapolis-hilton-hotel-11339672
Hundreds of Anti-ICE Protesters Storm Minneapolis Hotel

Hundreds of protesters against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stormed a Hilton hotel in Minneapolis after a woman was fatally shot by one of the agency’s officers this week.

Newsweek contacted Hilton Hotels and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) via email for comment.

Renee Nicole Good's killing by an ICE officer has ignited widespread protests in Minneapolis and drawn national attention to the contentious debate over federal immigration enforcement.

The incident, and the subsequent unrest, are fueling public scrutiny of ICE's practices and the Trump administration's immigration policies, while underscoring deep divisions within both the local community and the country at large

On Friday night, hundreds of masked anti-ICE demonstrators gathered outside the Canopy by Hilton Hotel, following rumors that federal agents were staying there.

Protesters shattered windows, sprayed graffiti, and chanted anti-ICE slogans.

Police responded at approximately 10:30 p.m., deploying around 100 state troopers to disperse the protest.

During the riot, protesters broke into a nearby downtown venue, The Depot, damaging property and further escalating tensions.

According to reports from the ground, a group "breached the side entrance of the Hilton Canopy hotel" where they believed federal ICE agents were staying.

The crowd could be heard whistling, chanting, and banging on what sounded like drums, pots, and pans while emergency vehicle sirens blared in the background in footage shared on social media.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/05/world/analysis-trump-venezuela-greenland-nato-intl-latam
Amid increasing concerns that Greenland, a vast Arctic territory ruled by Denmark, is still being coveted by the Trump administration, the Danish prime minister has delivered a stark warning to the White House.
In nationally televised remarks, Mette Frederiksen reminded Danes that she had already “made it very clear where the Kingdom of Denmark stands, and that Greenland has repeatedly said that it does not want to be part of the United States.”
But she also warned of the consequences of US military action to seize Greenland – something US President Donald Trump has pointedly refused to rule out.
“First of all, I think you have to take the US president seriously when he says he wants Greenland,” Frederiksen said, reflecting heightened anxiety about Trump’s intentions in the aftermath of his extraordinary military action in Venezuela.
“But I also want to make it clear that if the US chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been provided since the end of World War II,” she added.
It is a serious and widely shared concern among NATO allies that the Greenland issue has the potential not only to anger and humiliate a longtime US partner, but also to fracture the Western military alliance as pressure from Washington escalates.
Trump repeated on Sunday that the US needs Greenland “from the standpoint of national security.”
“We need Greenland … It’s so strategic right now. Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it.”

How do you top war crimes of murdering shipwrecked fishermen? More war crimes by disguising your military plane as a civilian craft.

https://apnews.com/article/drug-boats-trump-military-law-venezuela-beb8ebd91d8c2d8950c9438ad379d5b2

WASHINGTON (AP) — The plane used by the U.S. military to strike a boat accused of smuggling drugs off the coast of Venezuela last fall was painted to look like a civilian aircraft, a move that appears to be at odds with the Pentagon’s manual on the laws of war.

The plane, part of a secret U.S. fleet used in surveillance operations, also was carrying munitions in the fuselage, rather than beneath the aircraft, raising questions about the extent to which the operation was disguised in ways that run contrary to military protocol.

Details of the plane’s appearance, first reported Monday by The New York Times, were confirmed by two people familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson said in a statement that “the U.S. military utilizes a wide array of standard and nonstandard aircraft depending on mission requirements.”

The new details come after the Trump administration’s pressure campaign on Venezuela — which began with it massing military resources in Latin America and attacking a series of alleged drug-smuggling boats, killing at least 115 people — culminated this month in a stunning raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He and his wife were spirited to the United States to face federal drug trafficking charges.

Alarmed by the actions, the U.S. Senate is preparing to vote this week on a war powers resolution that would prohibit further military action in Venezuela without authorization from lawmakers.

> Thread theme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAgLTrkwDEk

> https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5685118-fine-introduces-greenland-bill/

Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) has introduced a bill to make Greenland the 51st state in the U.S., following President Trump’s recent push to acquire the Danish territory.

The “Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act” was introduced by the Florida Republican on Monday, his office said in a press release. The bill’s goals, according to its text, include enabling “the annexation and subsequent admission to statehood of Greenland.”

“Greenland is not a distant outpost we can afford to ignore—it is a vital national security asset,” Fine said in the press release. “Whoever controls Greenland controls key Arctic shipping lanes and the security architecture protecting the United States.”

“America cannot leave that future in the hands of regimes that despise our values and seek to undermine our security,” he added.

The bill states that President Trump “is authorized to take such steps as may be necessary, including by seeking to enter into negotiations with the Kingdom of Denmark, to annex or otherwise acquire Greenland as a territory of the United States.”

After the U.S. owns Greenland, under the bill, Trump then has to send a report to Congress featuring possible federal law changes “as the President may determine necessary to admit the newly acquired territory as a State.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday said that there was not a “timeline” for the U.S. to take over Greenland.

“[President Trump] has not set a timeline but it’s definitely a priority for him,” Leavitt told reporters.